Today.Az, Azerbaijan
June 6 2008
Arif Yunusov: "Pro-Russian moods in Armenia will be preserved until
the Karabakh conflict is settled and there is a genetic fear of
Turkey"
06 June 2008 [13:13] – Today.Az
Day.Az interview with famous conflict expert Arif Yunusov.
– How would you comment on results of the Gallup sociological service
survey, which revealed attitude to the state policy of Russian on the
post-Soviet area?
– Social polls are held to get answers to questions in the political
or socioeconomic spheres of life. It is necessary to reveal the
attitude of the population to any service or goods. Someone needs to
know how population will vote for any candidate or how it treats the
policy of any country.
Everything depends on the purposes of the poll, set by the
customer. If the Gallup sociological service is implied, this is one
of the influential organizations in the world. The results of its
polls are always treated seriously, especially in the United
States. But at the same time, one fact should be taken into account:
the value of each poll depends on its concreteness. I do not take the
polls, which are conducted throughout the world and in the result we
are announced that any drink is treated like that in the country and
so on.
This is all conditions things and the results of such kind of world
polls are not always realistic. On the whole, the polls should be
treated carefully, Here, methodological criteria (number of
respondents, categories of population covered, age and place of
residence, living conditions and political and other views, whom it
was conducted by, at which time) are important and it is also
necessary to take into account the openness of the population.
Most sociological services conduct regular polls and I also conduct
such polls and therefore I know it for sure how difficult it is to
trust to the data here. People may answer one way and may think or
react in the elections differently.
Polls are a normal event in the United States and in the West and they
have no problems with getting objective information as people are not
afraid of answering. People on the post-Soviet area are too insincere
in their questions. Polls have not become a part of our everyday
life. Especially if they are related to political aspects of life, not
speaking of the engagement of those, who conduct the polls. Let’s
recall the polls, conducted due to the elections and the reaction they
have caused.
– Then is the information stating that 66% of Azerbaijani population
positively assess Russian policy true?
– I am afraid that the results of the poll have not been presented to
use correcticely. For example, in Azerbaijan we see one and the same
picture. When country residents are asked to pointthree most friendly
and unfriendly states for Azerbaijan, we see that Russia is in the top
three most friendly and unfriendly states for Azerbaijan. It takes the
second place among the most friendly ones (following Turkey)
outstripping others dramatically. At the same time, in these polls
Russia is regularly on the top list of three unfriendly countries
following Armenia and Iran. While in 2002-2004 it was the third among
unfriendly countries, in 2005-2007 it became the second, leaving Iran
behind.
In other words, if not taking into account positive attittute to
Turkey and negative to Armenia, Russia is leading both as friendly and
unfriendly to Azerbaijan. I had the same result when I conducted the
poll in 2006. moreover, the respondents were asked an additional
question about their attitude to the Russian policy and made it clear
that 49% were negative on the policy and only 15% positive,
These gaps in figures is explained by the fact that today two Russias
exist for Azerbaijan: one is friendly, or at least neutral, it is a
close trade and economic partner. "Another" Russia takes a negative
position in such issue important for Azerbaijan as the Karabakh
conflict and is not interested in its resolution, being a strategic
ally of enemy Armenia.
Therefore, I think 66% Azerbaijanis treat positively not Russian
policy in the region but Russia itself as a country and Russians
– How do you explain the fact that by this poll 62% of Armenian
population is quite negative about the state policy of Russia?
– I also do not trust this figure. It is too false and differs from
what Armenian sociologists get during their polls. Even if we admit
that the polls conducted by Armenian sociologist have falsified,
different should not be so sharp. Not speaking of it should be
substantiated. Sharp and cardinal events should have occurred in
Armenia regarding Russia. It is true that there have been changed in
Armenia regarding Russia. A new generation, which is more oriented for
the West and western values has appeared in Armenian society. They
prefer to study in Western Universities and are not conservative as
the old generation.
But, I repeat, these are two different things. Loving to live in a
western country is one thing and not loving Russia is another. There
is such a concept as Armenian mentality, which formed not for even one
century and nothing changes so rapidly within some ten years. At
least, for Armenians.
Therefore, when I compare these figures with those presented by
Armenian sociological services, I see a great difference. I would
repeat once more that figures in the polls, conducted in Armenia, also
differ but they do not differ much on such important problems or
issues as Nagorno Karabakh or attitude to Russia and Turkey and the
dynamics is observed. For example, Russia is constantly leading as the
most friendly country in Armenia, even more so the gap between it and
the second one on the list (as a rule, this is France) is too
significant. Anyway, almost 75-85% of Armenian population considers
Russian friendly and suddenly we are informed that only 38% treat
Russia positively or neutral. The gap is great. What has happedn in
Armenia, which led to such figures? I would repeat that I do not trust
this figure, of course, if the information is true.
– But can not it be proposed that such figures are a result of good
work of the United States in Armenia and indicate that most Armenian
society did not vote for the Kremlin successor Serzh Sarkissyan at the
presidential elections in this country?
– We do not know when this poll was conducted- before or after the
elections. The plus is that we do not know in which settlements of
Armenia, which is also important. For example, pro-Western moods are
strong in the capital of Armenia and weaker in its
provinces. Therefore, we should speak not on the result of a
sociological poll, which has too fragmentary scanty information and
not concretely presented but about the overall situation in Armenia
and policy of external forces.
Certainly, Americans held a very active and thorough policy in Armenia
and among local population. In this sense Russia is losing. Its
external policy in our region is on the whole too aggressive and
ineffective and at the same time not thoroughly analyzed. Russia holds
alienating policy even towards Armenians which are its allies. The
rapid growth of pro-western moods in Armenia can be explained only by
this.
Moreover, they began to realize that they are in the deadlock. Of
course, when speaking to Azerbaijanis Armenians do not admit that
(with rare exceptions). But they realize that Russia’s support led
Armenia to a deadlock and Armenia does not win from the one-sided
orientation on Russia and sees changes in Georgia and Azerbaijan with
their orientation on the west.
– Doesn’t this poll prove the striving of the Armenian society for
radical changing its vector towards the United States?
– Here I would recommend not to have such radical views aboutsituation
in Armenia. Yes, the striving for strengthening of West’s role in
Armenia is evident. But at the same time, we should understand that
the ground for preservation of pro-Russian moods among Armenians is
very strong. We should make it clear that pro-Russian moods in Armenia
are not unsubstantiated, but were a result of a more than two
centuries of policy and propaganda of Russia among Armenians. These
moods will be preserved until the Karabakh conflict is settled and
until there is a genetic fear of Turkey. As soon as the Karabakh issue
is settled, the pro-Russian moods in Armenia will melt away. But
today, these two factors are a basis for preservation of pro-Russian
moods.
In other words, Armenians can be dissatisfied with Russia’s policy,
even not love it or voice resentment about it (especially about rise
in prices on energy sources or murder of Armenians in Russia) but if
they put direct question they would look in the direction of Russia,
no matter how strong the scent of western democracy is.
– Does it mean that you rule out possible changes in external policy
of Armenia and its ability to turn into US satellite?
– Open confrontation between the West (especially the United States)
and Russia is obvious in our region. And struggle is for the moods of
population in our region. It will be reflected primarily during the
conflicts (if hostilities are renewed) as well as during the
presidential and parliamentary elections. But in the near future I do
not believe that Armenia will take US side and will be
anti-Russia. Let’s not exaggerate the results of these polls.
We should speak of Armenians intention to use this confrontation
between Russia and the United States for its own interests. They can
do it effectively. Moreover, this is taking place at present. Armenia
is considered the ally of Russia and Iran and even gets financial and
other aid from the United States and other Western countries. We are
far behind them in this issue.
/Day.Az/
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