WHY ON THE 20TH OF JUNE?
Hayots Ashkhar Daily
Published on June 07, 2008
Armenia
The chain of instabilities of the spring-summer-autumn `collection’
The specter of the June 20 demonstration has recently become a subject
of most active discussions.
We hear L. Ter-Petrosyan’s team making arrogant speeches on their
intention of holding a demonstration on that day, `without considering
the circumstances’. In the meantime, the European structures are, for
some reason, hurrying to admonish us not to disrupt the demonstration
which is going to be held in half a month’s time.
Some people have again started `making a mountain out of a molehill’,
i.e. applying the experimented technology with the help of which one of
the presidential candidate who had received 21 percent of votes managed
to destabilize the country’s political situation.
Why especially on the 20th of June?
When LTP’s Press Secretary Arman Mousinyan announces that `The struggle
against these authorities will not cease even for a day’s time’, and
`these authorities will all the time feel the spirit of the public
reprimand and hatred and the opposition’s coordinated struggle,’ such
prediction-desire is entitled to exist as much as the contrary
allegation saying, `the confrontation artificially provoked against
these authorities will cease; they will earn more public trust while
the opposition’s coordinated struggle will gradually die out.’
Since the authorities are engaged in eliminating the existing flaws in
different spheres, especially in the tax and customs services, i.e.
they are rooting out the causes of public dissatisfaction instead of
making predictions, the opposition needs to look for new occasions for
exacerbating the previous confrontation. That’s to say, the current
search for fanning the flames of the struggle is nothing more than the
opposition’s fear of the prospect that the country’s internal political
situation may stabilize.
In case of viewing the problem from this particular angle, it will
become clear why the pro-Ter-Petrosyan activists intend to organize a
demonstration on the 20th of June. The thing is that political life
comes to a standill during the summer months. In order to maintain the
existing tension till September, Ter-Petrosyan’s team needs to give
society food for thought for the summer.
There are several reasons for that.
First: The hearings of the lawsuits filed in connection with the March
1 mass disorders are coming to an end, and it is obvious that the
overwhelming majority of the detainees will be released in the near
future, at least on probation. And what are the revolutionaries going
to speculate in that case?
Second: During its summer session, the Parliamentary Assembly of the
Council of Europe will by all means evaluate the conduct of the
Armenian authorities and refrain from applying strict sanctions against
our country. As to the State Department, it is unlikely to make a new
statement in autumn – at the heated moment of the presidential race.
Third: The reforms currently implemented by the new authorities in
different spheres of governance will produce their positive results
till the start of autumn, especially if more decisive steps are
undertaken in the sphere of reinstating justice and conducting an
anti-corruption policy.
Thus, if there are no force majéur situations imposed by foreign forces
by way of torpedoing the Karabakh peace talks and making Azerbaijan
demonstrate its aggressive posture, the Ter-Petrosyan-led camp will
turn out a loser in the political initiatives and become faced with the
deepening internal controversies.
Therefore, in order to remain on the political arena from spring till
autumn, it is necessary to play some dirty tricks on the authorities,
by staging the scenario of the March 1 events or organizing something
of the kind. That’s to say, it is necessary to find the new chain link
of periodical instabilities uniting the spring with the autumn and
impose it on society.
Such calculation has not only internal political but also serious
external reasons. On October 15, 2008 Azerbaijan is to hold
presidential elections; thereafter the negotiating parties will be
weakened enough to succumb to pressures. How is it possible to allow
Armenia to sigh with relief, heal the wounds of `March 1′, come to its
senses and be able to resist the external challenges?
Why then do our `revolutionary’ organizations receive funding in such
large amounts? Will they allow the authorities to establish law and
order in the country, increase the amount of the taxes, punish the tax
evaders, create equal conditions for all the entrepreneurs, that’s to
say, to bring their initiatives to the end?
The 20th of June is a specific kind of springboard for the fifth
`military column’ actively working in the country. This will pave the
way for hampering the implementation of the initiated reforms,
undermining the state government system and imposing on it the
successive scenario.
We believe that this time L. Ter-Petrosyan has to take the entire
burden of responsibility for the events expected on June 20 and only
thereafter obtain the right of organizing a demonstration.