CORRELATION OF FORCES IN THE GEORGIAN-OSSETIAN CONFLICT AREA; Georgian-Ossetian conflict: correlation of forces.
by Pavel Felgengauer, Valentin Zvegintsev
WPS Agency, Russia
What the Papers Say
August 8, 2008 Friday
Russia
Initiative in the conflict area is the Ossetians’. It is the Ossetians
who provoke the conflict by all means available. Georgia does not
need a war this year. It knows that it will be much stronger next
year. Moreover, Tbilisi must convince the international community
that it is not Georgia that started it all. Even Russian peacekeepers
say that the Ossetians are lying, that there is no fighting under
way there…
Meanwhile, there are trigger-happy hotheads in Georgia too, so that
a conflict is actually possible. Eduard Kokoity of South Ossetia is
probably correct to regard late September and early October as the
extremely dangerous period, a period when the hostilities may begin.
It should be remembered, however, that Saakashvili’s regular army
is one of the best in all of the post-Soviet zone. It consists
of 6 brigades. Four of them are autonomous formations, each 3,300
men strong. Every brigade includes 3 infantry battalions 591 man
each, an armored battalion, artillery battalion, and some companies
(communications, rear services, military engineers). A great deal of
Georgian infantrymen saw combat in Iraq.
Also importantly, Georgian infantry is well-trained in mountainous
warfare.
Special task brigade includes all special forces of the Georgian
army. The Air Force includes six squadrons of MI-8s, UH-1Hs, SU-25s,
MI-17s, MI-24s, L-39s, and drones.
The Georgian Defense Ministry assumed command of the Internal Troops as
well. These latter number 15,000 men plus several special battalions
deployed in Abkhazian and South Ossetian conflict areas where units
of the regular army are forbidden by cease-fire agreements.
Along with everything else, Georgia has a combat ready army of
volunteers numbering 30,000. Reservists (100,000 men) are arranged
in the manner of the US National Guard…
By and large, the Georgians can muster 80,000 men this year. Even
100,000 men, actually, if the conflict becomes protracted.
The situation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia is different. When
they received Russian passports and citizenship, people there
began immigrating to Russia and Turkey in search of jobs and
safety. According to OSCE and UN observers, there are less than 30,000
Ossetians in South Ossetia nowadays. In Abkhazia, the Abkhazians
themselves number only about 30% of the whole population estimated at
140,000. The largest ethnic community there is Armenian. There are
also Russians, and so others. Plus 50,000 Georgians who returned to
the Gali district.
In time of peace, the Abkhazian army numbers up to 4,500
men. Mobilization of 10,000 more is expected. As for the Ossetians,
their army is 3,000 men strong.
South Ossetian Deputy Premier Boris Chochiyev: When the Georgians
invade us, all Ossetians will leave for Russia
Question: What if the Georgians pierce the defense and enter South
Ossetia?
Boris Chochiyev: All Ossetians will leave for Russia because they
will be imprisoned otherwise.
Question: How will Russia and the West react to it?
Boris Chochiyev: Well, Russia is supposed to protect and defend it
citizens, isn’t it? Moreover, Russia is the principal guarantor of
peace and stability, and this particular document bears signature of
Georgia. Documents are to be signed and honored, right? As for the
West, it is clear I believe that the West has been arming Georgia in
order to use it as a bridgehead in its own wars on Russia afterwards.
Question: The government of South Ossetia claims that Tbilisi is
putting its military plans into motion…
Boris Chochiyev: It does indeed. Georgia turned down all our
suggestions made over the last eight months. Not a single one was
accepted. Tbilisi turned down everything including a non-aggression
pact.
Question: The widespread opinion is that this action on the part of
Georgia may facilitate official recognition of the Republic of South
Ossetia by Russia. What do you think?
Boris Chochiyev: I think that it is what should be done. Russia should
have recognized South Ossetia already. The Ossetians mutter that they
want to know how many victims more are needed for Russia to recognize
South Ossetia…