Situation In South Ossetia "Potentially Explosive" – Spanish Daily

SITUATION IN SOUTH OSSETIA "POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE" – SPANISH DAILY

RedOrbit
14 August 2008, 18:00 CDT
TX

At dawn last Thursday, Georgian troops launched a brutal and
unexpected land and air attack on Tskhinvali, the capital of
South Ossetia. A few hours later, Russia counterattacked with all
its military might. Shortly afterward Abkhazia went to Ossetia’s
defence, confronting Georgia. The Russian troops easily took control
of the situation in Ossetia. They crossed the border into Georgia
and harassed Gori, the country’s second city, which is very close
to Tbilisi, the capital. In the face of such a forceful reaction,
Georgia declared a ceasefire, but Russia continued its "preventative"
penetration into Georgian territory until it had secured its rear-guard
positions. Shortly before receiving French President Sarkozy, currently
serving as EU president, in Moscow, Russia also declared a ceasefire
through a provisional truce.

Georgia’s unexpected attack on South Ossetia occurred just at the
beginning of the "Olympic peace." On Friday, just hours after the
fighting began, Putin and Bush hardly knew what to say to each other
when they were together in Beijing at the spectacular opening of the
Olympic Games. Nevertheless it is quite improbable that the decision
for Georgia to attack South Ossetia was made independently by the
foolish President Saakashvili, a faithful pawn of Bush’s in the region.

Although analyses of the attack are not yet clear, everything
indicates that the purpose was to test how Russia would respond to a
provocation in the Caucasus region after having lost its influence
in the Balkans. What was demonstrated is that the Russia of Putin
and Medvedev is not the Russia of Yeltsin. Their current reaction
capability and political intelligence in defence of their own specific
interests is much better. What is most likely is that the attack has
to do with Bush’s latest foreign policy mistake and with the first
positive action by the European Union, an action that was also brave
and autonomous. This was the time for the EU to start asserting itself
in an area where it should be exercising influence.

At any rate, despite the truce, the Caucasus region is potentially
explosive. Let us examine some historical aspects that will help to
understand the situation.

The Ossetians are a Caucasian people, ethnically different from
the Georgians, who have traditionally had good relations with
Russia. They have enjoyed autonomy since the time of the czars. With
the independence of Georgia after the disintegration of the USSR in
1991, South Ossetia – North Ossetia is part of Russia as an autonomous
province – remained an enclave in Georgian territory. This situation
provoked a military conflict that ended in a precarious agreement
by which South Ossetia became a de facto independent territory of
Georgia under Russia’s protection. The Abkhazians, also located
within Georgian territory but ethnically different from Georgians in
addition to being Muslims, found themselves in a similar position,
which helped widen Russia’s narrow strip of access to the Black Sea
which remained after Ukraine got its independence.

In addition to all this, since 2006, the only pipeline carrying oil
from the deposits near the Caspian Sea north of Iraq and the former
Soviet republics north of Afghanistan that does not pass through Russia
has crossed Georgian territory. For that reason, Georgia has become an
enclave that is strategic for Western control of oil in that region. At
the NATO summit last April, Georgia and Ukraine were candidates to join
the Alliance. Because of pressure from Russia they were not admitted.

Up to now Russia has not forced the issue of independence for South
Ossetia and Abkhazia, leaving them in an uncertain legal limbo of
de facto independence. Nevertheless, the Russian foreign minister
announced last winter that the recognition of Kosovo as an independent
state would have implications on the situation of South Ossetia and
other territories in the Ca ucasus.

After the military activity of the last few days, some observers have
asked, "Why yes to Kosovo and no to South Ossetia and Abkhazia? The
legal precedents involving several breaches of international law
in the Balkans comprise another factor in the conflict. Also keep
in mind that other countries in the region – Daguestan, Chechnyia,
Ingusetia, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia – are also notorious
centres of instability. In this sense the Balkans are a minor theme
in comparison to the Caucasus region.

Thus the ingredients of conflict are all present: ethnicity, religions,
nationalism to excite the people; oil and energy policy as real
economic factors; Russia’s outlet to the Black Sea and limits to the
area controlled by NATO as basic geostrategic factors; proximity to
war zones (Afghanistan and Iraq) or of conflict (Iran and the Middle
East ) as centres of military interest. Therefore to play with war
in the Caucasus region is to play with fire. We hope these brief and
tragic days have served as a lesson to certain sorcerer’s apprentices.

Originally published by La Vanguardia website, Barcelona, in Spanish
14 Aug 08.