orgia_South_Ossetia_conflict/
Sep. 11, 2008
Georgian Opposition Eyes Presidency
// After the war in South Ossetia
The Georgian Defense Ministry yesterday denied information published
in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper that ministry
representatives spoke against the actions of Georgian President
Mikheil Saakashvili in South Ossetia at a recent meeting at NATO
headquarters in Brussels. Nonetheless, that information bolstered the
spirits of the Georgian opposition, which demanded Saakashvili’s
resignation. Kommersant decided to measure the depth of the internal
division in Georgian society and the presidential prospects of
opposition leaders.
Schism
According to the German newspaper, high-placed representatives of the
Georgian armed forces told their colleagues at NATO that they "were
against the military invasion of South Ossetia and tried to convince
Saakashvili not to start a war," since they understood their
"powerlessness in a confrontation with Russia." The same publication
quotes diplomats in Brussels as saying that the statements were
perceived as "attempts to shed the blame for Saakashvili’s lost war."
Those quotations, reprinted yesterday in the Georgian and Russian
press, are evidence of a schism in the Georgian elite. Considering the
recent shakeup in the Georgian military, that attitude was to be
expected. Immediately after the end of the war in South Ossetia,
Saakashvili dismissed commander of the National Guard David
Aptsiauria, who was well respected within the military. Deputy chief
of the unified staff Alexiy Osepaishvili was demoted for "poor
organization of the movement of forces during the war." Infantry
commander Mamuka Balakhdze was sent to Germany for retraining. The
Defense Ministry made no secret of the fact that those change were
only the beginning of a coming reform, leaving the military ripe for
dissatisfaction.
However, Georgian experts say, the information about the disloyalty of
the military leaders is unlikely to be true. "Of course, in the army,
as in society, there are many people who are dissatisfied with the
outcome of the war," Merab Pachulia, director of the Gorbi
sociological center, observed for Kommersant. "But the officers
Saakashvili sent to Brussels would not dare to speak against him
there." Another well-known political scientist, president of the
Georgian Foundation for Strategic Studies Alexander Rondeli said that
"The officers in Brussels talked only about how Georgia had no
interest in that war, because everyone understood that it was
senseless to go to war with Russia, but journalists interpreted that
phrase the way they wanted to."
The Georgian Defense Ministry called the information in the German
newspaper "complete disinformation." Nana Intskirveli, head of the
ministry press center, told Kommersant that "There were no
consultations in Brussels in which our officers would have taken part.
Moreover, not a single officer from the general staff has left the
country recently."
Waiting for the Winter
By the time the Defense Ministry made its denial, the Georgian
opposition had picked up on the disillusionment with the president.
David Gamkrelidze, leader of the New Right Party, demanded
Saakashvili’s resignation and early parliamentary and presidential
elections. "If Saakashvili remains president and commander in chief,"
he said, "even more problems and catastrophes will arise for us. The
citizens of Georgia should decide what has priority – the country or
Saakashvili." Gamkrelidze laid the blame on the president for the fact
that "prospects for Georgia’s accession to NATO are now more distance
because no one knows what borders to accept it with." Opposition Labor
Party leader Shalva Natelashvili echoed similar ideas, saying that
South Ossetia and Abkhazia were lost due to Saakashvili.
If other parties support those leaders’ demands, the massive protests
that were seen almost all year in Georgia may begin again. "That is
what is holding us back," Republican Party leader David Usupashvili
told Kommersant. "We understand that such actions in a situation like
the one Georgia is in today will harm the country and ordinary
citizens. So we favor early parliamentary elections in the autumn of
2009. There should be a change of government and a change of
parliament. And, with new legislative and executive power, we should
decide on the issue of the president’s resignation. The demand for the
president’s resignation will not find much support in society today."
Sociologist Pachulia agrees. "It is senseless to demand Saakashvili’s
resignation today. His approval rate is higher than before the war,"
he said. "The clash with Russia, in the opinion of many citizens, was
provoked by Russia itself."
Nevertheless, the Georgian opposition has begun consultations
overseas, which, many experts say, is evidence of a change coming in
Georgian politics. In the last month, the leaders of the Labor,
Republican and New Right Parties have all been to Europe or the United
States. Former speaker of the parliament Nino Burjanadze also traveled
to Washington, where she met with representatives of John McCain and
Barack Obama. Experts say she is preparing for her own presidential
campaign. Burjanadze admits the possibility of returning to politics.
She has been cautiously speaking about forming her own party, which
would happen closer to 2010, when the country prepares for elections.
Experts say Burjanadze’s discretion is explained by the fact that the
U.S. has not decided whether it is satisfied with Saakashvili. "The
statements of the Georgian opposition are only the beginning of the
political fight in the country," said Pachulia. "And now everything
depends on who the West stands behind. It is too early to say whether
that will be Burjanadze or someone else." Rondeli added that "I don’t
think the replacement of Saakashvili is an issue right now. The
opposition wants to think that, so it is going to the U.S. for
inspection. Washington wants to keep Saakashvili. They understand that
elections and a change of power would weaken the country more at a
time when it has to be restored."
Almost all experts agree that, if there is a change of government in
Georgia, it will not take place earlier than the winter, after the
U.S. elections, "when Saakashvili may receive an offer from Washington
that he can’t refuse." Until then, Georgian authorities have time and
Western money to use for their political rehabilitation.
Olga Allenova; Georgy Dvali, Tbilisi