ELDAR JAHANGIROV: "IT IS HIGH TIME FOR A BREAKTHROUGH IN NAGORNO KARABAKH ISSUE"
Today.Az
itics/47555.html
Sept 15 2008
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with famous political scientist Eldar Jahangirov.
– What do you expect from the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of
Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey, to be held in the framework of the
session of the UN General Assembly?
– I think that this meeting should be considered in the light of
the recent regional events, including South Ossetia and Abkhazia,
Turkey’s initiative of the Caucasus Cooperation and Stability Platform,
the visit of the Turkish leadership to Moscow, Yerevan and Baku, the
visit of the US vice-president to the region, the agreement between
Putin and Uzbek President in most directions, especially, on European
formula of gas prices, Islam Karimov’s visit to Azerbaijan and Ilham
Aliyev’s upcoming visit to Moscow.
It all proves that important systematic events are being formed
in the region. The meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the three
countries is a next stage. I think, by results of this meeting,
the sides will give different comments on the Turkish project of the
Caucasus platform and define further steps for the resolution of the
conflict. I do not expect anything more from this meeting.
– After returning from his one-day visit to Azerbaijan, President
of Turkey Abdullah Gul told reporters in the airport that "Armenia
promised to release the occupied lands of Azerbaijan". Can these
words be trusted?
– The Armenian officials have not rebuffed these words. There are
no grounds for which we can not trust him. Merely, I think that this
implies the liberation of not all the occupied lands of Azerbaijan but
also a part of them. There is nothing new in it, for Armenians do not
hide that they consider the regions, adjacent to Nagorno Karabakh as
a buffer zone. The return of the lands, adjacent to Nagorno Karabakh,
is considered as the first step of the resolution almost within all
formats, beginning with the earliest ones until the so-called Madrid
principles. The thing is what Armenians will demand in exchange for
the return.
By the way, despite the ambiguous reaction of the Azerbaijani community
to the visit of the Turkish President to Yerevan, I would like to
stress an important element – no one, even Armenians, mentioned the
unrecognized "Nagorno Karabakh Republic" as a possible participant
of the talks.
– Can Russia prevent the peaceful and fair resolution of the Nagorno
Karabakh conflict?
– Certainly. Russia has had a dominating influence on all the processes
in the Caucasus region since the USSR times. Today Russia has even
more. There are numerous ways and technologies for it, beginning
from the physical termination of prominent figures (let’s recall the
striking murder of Zelimkhan
Yandarbiyev in Qatar) until the shooting of talks by different
ways: planned information leakage in mass media, spread of damaging
information about the negotiators with the further annulling of the
whole agenda of talks.
But the most interesting to me is that Russia has sustained sharp image
losses. West, in the person of the United States and its allies, made
the only correct decision – to put an economic pressure on Russia. The
Russia equities market is sustaining a stable decline. The mass outflow
of western investments is observed and most joint projects have been
suspended. For us, the issue of the return of the occupied lands of
a top priority.
After the case with recognition of Kosovo, the United States and
West have a motivation of comparing the Karabakh issue to the
South Ossetian and Abkhazian ones, that is to build everything on
the principle of territorial integrity. Iran is concerned over the
internal priorities. Turkey has proposed regional initiatives, which
are impossible before the conflict is settled. Russia’s motivation
in this case is similar to that of the United States: they need to
show adherence to international law. After the August events Armenia
has been isolated with Azerbaijan on the East, Turkey on the West
and unpredictable Iran on the South. Geographical communication with
Russia is sharply restricted. Therefore, it is high time for achieving
a breakthrough in the Nagorno Karabakh issue.
– We all remember that the attempt of the just resolution of the
Nagorno Karanakh conflict led to the replacement of powers in
Armenia. Isn’t there a threat of such developments now?
– There is always such a threat in Armenia with its amusing history
of state terrorism.
– What will be the future of the whole South Caucasus region in
case Armenians liberate at least the adjacent regions around Nagorno
Karabakh?
– The resolution of any conflict always implies the reduction of
tensions, shifting of military and military and political accents to
the economic sector, increase in the volumes of trade and financial
cooperation, cultural and humanitarian ties and gradually the growing
welfare of the people in all senses. As regards the South Caucasus
countries, in the light of the recent events, a sharp political crisis
can be expected in Georgia.