Georgiandaily, NY
Paul Goble’s Window on Eurasia Shorts for September 20 – Georgian Events
September 20, 2008
Some news items about events in and around Georgia during the last
week which have attracted less attention than they deserve:
RUSSIAN BANK RESERVES HIT FIRST BY GEORGIA, THEN BY WORLD FINANCIAL
CRISIS. Prior to the war in Georgia, the Russian Central Bank’s hard
currency reserves had been growing approximately five billion
U.S. dollars a week in 2008. In the six weeks since the conflict
began, they have declined more than 40 billion, initially because of
the war and more recently because of the world financial crisis.
TWO GEORGIANS IN FIV E THINK TBILISI COULD HAVE AVOIDED CONFLICT.
According to a telephone poll conducted by Georgian IPResearch in
early September, 42.4 percent of 450 Georgians surveyed said that
Tbilisi could have avoided the conflict if the Georgian government had
acted differently. Three out of four said the international community
had played a key role in stopping Russian aggression, more than 70
percent said the United States is the "most friendly" to Georgia or
any foreign country, and more than four out of five said they expect
NATO to extend a membership action plan (MAP) to Georgia in the near
future.
MEDVEDEV SAYS GEORGIAN WAR SHOWS NEED FOR MILITARY UPGRADES. President
Dmitry Medvedev said that the performance of the Russian military in
Georgia shows that the Russian army must be significantly upgraded
both in terms of equipment and frequency of e exercises. His statement
comes on the heels of a series of articles by military commentators
who have been sharply critical of the Russian army’s performance
( 51134340.html and
).
RUSSIANS, GEORGIANS DISPUTE WAR LOSSES. As is the case in almost all
military conflicts, each of the sides says the other is understating
its losses and overstating the number of casualties it inflicted. In
this case, some Russian articles have suggested that as many as 3,000
Georgian soldiers died in South Ossetia, a number that is 20 times
more than Tbilisi acknowledges, and Georgian sources say that the real
losses of Russian forces were as much as five times greater than
Moscow has said. For a survey of the debate and the various figures
being offered, see
GEORGIA PLANS TO BUY MORE FROM UKRAINE, LESS FROM RUSSIA. Valery
Chchelashvili, the secretary general of GUAM, said that Georgia will
purchase less from Russia and more from Ukraine, with the latter
country moving from third or fourth place in terms of bilateral trade
to first.
CIS DEFENSE GROUP CAN’T INCLUDE ABKHAZIA, SOUTH OSSETIA UNTIL ALL
MEMBERS RECOGNIZE THEM. Moscow may want to include the two states it
has recognized to be included in the CIS Collective Security Group,
but it cannot do so until all the current members of that organization
extend diplomatic recognition to Abkhazia and South Ossetia, according
to Nikolai Bordyuzha, the secretary general of that
organization. Bordyuzha’s statement raises questions about some of the
provisions of the bilateral accords the Russian government has signed
with these two republics.
TURKEY, IRAN EXPAND DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS IN CAUCASUS. Both Turkey and
Iran have sought to expand their diplomatic presence and political
leadership in the southern Caucasus in the wake of the conflict in
Georgia, with Ankara presenting a new "stability platform" include
most states in the region and Iran reaching out to the three states in
the region and to Muslim republics within Russia
( 7962 and
).
GE ORGIA’S AZERBAIJANIS DON’T SEEK AUTONOMY. Azerbaijanis represent the
largest ethnic minority in Georgia, but they have been overwhelmingly
loyal to Tbilisi. During and after the conflict with Russia, the
leaders of this community repeatedly stressed that they, unlike other
groups such as the Armenians of Georgia, do not have any interest in
an autonomous formation.
‘KOMMERSANT’ SAYS NATO DEFENDS SAAKASHVILI FROM INTERNAL ENEMIES. An
article in Moscow’s "Kommersant" says that NATO is doing more to
protect Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili from his domestic
enemies than from his foreign opponents, a suggestion that appears
intended to provoke discussions in NATO capitals about the Western
alliance’s involvement with Tbilisi. Meanwhile, Vladimir Zhirinovsky,
the flamboyant leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
told Prime Minister Vladimir Putin that Washington has already decided
to replace Saakashvili with Irakli Alasania, who, Zhirinovsky said,
has been working for the CIA for a decade.
CAUCASUS DIASPORA GROUPS IN TURKEY CONDEMN GEORGIA. Eighteen Caucasus
diaspora groups in Turkey, which represent communities numbering some
five million people in all, have denounced Georgia’s actions and
welcomed Russia’s recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Their
declaration suggests they view Moscow’s move as a step toward the
independence of their own homelands.