Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
December 1, 2004, Wednesday
THE FATE OF THE LAST RUSSIAN BASE IN AZERBAIJAN UNDECIDED
SOURCE: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, November 29, 2004, p. 11
by Rauf Mirkadyrov
RUMORS ON THE UPCOMING APPEARANCE OF AMERICAN MILITARY BASES IN
AZERBAIJAN PUT WITHDRAWAL OF RUSSIAN MILITARY OBJECTS FROM THE
COUNTRY INTO THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION
The Gabala radar installation, the only Russian military object left
on the territory of Azerbaijan, is in jeopardy. National parliament
demanded a revision of the terms of lease more than once already. Not
long ago, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Ecology announced that it would
monitor the effect of electromagnetic emanation from the installation
on environment and the population. PR Department of the Russian Space
Force immediately released a statement to the effect that the
emanation was well within the established norms. Unfortunately, local
environmentalists claim quite the opposite. It should be noted here
that all these organizations exist on grants from Western, mostly
American, trusts. Citing their findings, environmentalists claim that
the Gabala radar has a negative effect on nature and health of the
population.
Even parliamentarians joined the campaign – mostly deputies of the
ruling party and that is not something that could happen without an
encouraging nod from the very top. Deputy Dzhangir Guseinov demanded
an answer from defense minister to the question concerning the rumors
that officers of Armenian origin were assigned to the Gabala
installation. The lawmaker called it unacceptable even if the
officers in question were in fact citizens of Russia. Other
parliamentarians and a substantial part of society backed Guseinov.
Well-informed sources claim that a new campaign for the closure of
Gabala was initiated by upper echelons of the Defense Ministry of
Azerbaijan. Allegedly, the matter of leasing the installation to
Russia was settled without the opinion of the Defense Ministry taken
into account, and an insiders claim that the Defense Ministry always
objected to the idea. The fact that the campaign was inspired by the
Defense Ministry is quite indicative. Defense Minister Safar Abiyev
is known as the man who would not do anything without looking over
his shoulder at the United States first.
Sure, official Baku may allegedly find itself under the pressure of
some domestic and, more importantly, external factors sufficiently
serious to initiate negotiations with Russia over liquidation of the
military object. “Electronic equipment may be dismantled and
withdrawn. But it is not the electronics that is valuable in this
particularly case (the electronics in question is fairly outdated
now), it is the building itself as a construction. It cannot be
dismantled. It can only be blown up, destroyed in the manner an
analogous object was destroyed in Latvia,” independent military
expert Dzhasur Mamedov said.
It does not even matter that Russia did not pay all its debts for the
use of the Gabala station before the signing of the lease accord for
a decade (it came into effect in 2002). Russia is paying only $7
million a year for the installation. Meanwhile, Moscow pledged to pay
$30 million worth of electricity bills for between 1992 and 2002. It
has not got down to it yet.
Azerbaijan has all legal grounds to initiate negotiations over
liquidation of the Gabala installation. About a year ago, its
parliament passed a law on national security expressly forbidding
foreign military bases on the territory of the country.
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedov told this correspondent
that the Gabala station operates under the lease accord between the
two states and viewing it as a military base is a mistake. As far as
Russia and Azerbaijan are concerned, he said, Gabala is a center of
information and analysis leased by Russia on the basis of an
agreement between our governments.
All the same, Azerbaijan may call Gabala a foreign military base and
initiate liquidation talks at literally any moment.
In the last 30 years or so first the USSR and the US and then Russia
and America signed a series of strategic arms limitation (SALT-I and
II), strategic offensive arms restriction (START-I and II), and
ballistic missile defense systems restriction (Ballistic Missile
Defense Treaty) accords. Said Mamedov, “These accords stipulated a
restriction of missiles with nuclear warheads and abolition of some
early warning radar stations including the Gabala and Latvian ones.
The station in Latvia was blown up, and the sides “forgot” about
Gabala – they probably agreed to. In any case, the provision
concerning elimination of the Gabala installation was never fulfilled
even though the sides never annulled it. Formally, the United States
will be quite within its rights demanding fulfillment of the clause
from Russia.”
So, Azerbaijan has enough formal excuses for initiation of the
liquidation talks. But why bring up the matter at this point
precisely?
Political scientist Metin Yasharoglu does not think that the American
military will want to be neighbors of the Russians no matter on what
pretext they are deployed in Azerbaijan. Reports appeared in the
Western media not long ago that Washington began consultations with
official Baku over the use of the territory of Azerbaijan for strikes
against Iran. Bearing in mind that Moscow is highly unlikely to
support Washington’s idea, the future of the Gabala station becomes
clear: The United States will never permit”enemy” radar behind its
lines.
Yasharoglu says that this turn of events is quite plausible. “Iranian
Foreign Minister Harrazi announced that Tehran accepted all IAEA
demands and abandonment of the uranium-enrichment program as soon as
the reports on strikes at Iran from the territory of Azerbaijan
appeared. President of Iran Hatami called Ilham Aliyev on the phone
on two occasions in the last month,” the expert said. “Shortly before
that, Tehran has finally settled the matter of opening the consulate
of Azerbaijan in Tebriz, the matter that defied a solution for a
decade. So, Iran is making advances to official Baku on the one hand,
and trying to gauge the mood in the upper echelons of Azerbaijan on
the other.”
Moreover, the Gabala radar is not going to be dismantled in the near
future because Aliyev looks up at Russia. Experts say that Vladimir
Putin has some leverage against Azerbaijani leaders.