Will Russian Peacekeepers lift blockade off Karabakh?

WPS Agency, Russia
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
October 24, 2008 Friday

WILL RUSSIAN PEACEKEEPERS LIFT BLOCKADE OFF KARABAKH?

by Yekaterina Grigorieva

RUSSIA UNDERTAKES TO SETTLE THE CONFLICT OVER NAGORNO-KARABAKH;
Presidents of Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan will meet to discuss
Nagorno-Karabakh.

Toting up results of his visit to Yerevan, President Dmitry Medvedev
said the leaders of Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan would meet soon to
discuss the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.

Armenia is one of the victims of the South Ossetian conflict. Ferry to
Poti, Georgia, is the only alternative to expensive shipment of cargo
by the air. The ferry makes the trip once a week these days – too
infrequently even for so small a country as Armenia is. Political
difficulties meanwhile are even more formidable. Moscow’s ally as it
is, Yerevan is supposed to support recognition of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia. It cannot do so. Supporting recognition of the former
Georgian autonomies, it will have to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as
well. Failure to do so will frustrate Armenian general
public. Recognition on the other hand is not something Azerbaijan will
put up with. Skirmishes between Armenian and Azerbaijani border guards
are too frequent as it is.

"Armenia is ready for the negotiations," President Serj Sarkisjan
announced. He said, however, that Armenia intended to take into
account Nagorno-Karabakh’s right to self-determination.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said several days ago that Karabakh
conflict settlement was making progress and that a couple of nuances
only had to be addressed now. Yerevan took offense. It decided that
what Lavrov was saying was that abandonment of claims for
Nagorno-Karabakh would make it easier for Armenia to get out of the
transport blockade. What information is available to Izvestia,
however, indicates that Lavrov reassured his Armenian colleagues and
said that he had only wanted to focus attention on some practical
issues. Including, one might think, the recent improvement of the
relations between Armenia and Turkey. What will happen now? Some
experts assume that deployment of Russian peacekeepers in
Nagorno-Karabakh is a definite possibility (there are no legal
obstacles to it, as matters stand). Others believe that another
Russian military base may be established in Armenia, a means to change
the correlation of forces in the region in Moscow’s favor.

Source: Izvestia (Moscow issue), October 22, 2008, pp. 1 – 2
Translated by Aleksei Ignatkin