WILL TURKEY OFFICIALLY APOLOGIZE FOR THE ‘GREAT CATASTROPHE’?
By Cenap Cakmak
Today’s Zaman
Dec 29 2008
Turkey
As expected, the apology campaign initiated by a group of Turkish
intellectuals who criticized the indifference and injustice to the
massacres and sufferings of Armenian people in the events that took
place in Ottoman territories in 1915 has sparked differing reactions.
While some endorsed the declaration made available online for public
participation, others, including Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, criticized the initiative, arguing that there was nothing
to apologize for. Some groups in the Armenian diaspora expressed
cautious optimism and satisfaction with the declaration, which should
be discussed or considered with reference to freedom of expression
given that this is a civilian initiative.
But it is obvious that this does not represent Turkey’s official stance
because neither the government nor Parliament implies that there will
be such action taken by the establishment. Besides, state institutions
have so far made public their open opposition to the campaign. In
this case, the question is whether this civilian initiative will be
transformed into an official policy of Turkey vis-a-vis the Armenian
genocide issue; this question is particularly relevant because this
is actually what the Armenian diaspora has been looking for.
The answer to this question is simple and clear: Such a move seems to
be out of the question in the current political context. Regardless of
the international environment and accompanying pressures as well as
the probable profits and gains associated with an official apology,
Turkey will not comply with these demands considering the gravity
and serious repercussions of accepting the Armenian claims.
There are at least two major reasons for Turkey not to proceed with
offering an apology for the "Great Catastrophe." Above all, the
Armenian genocide issue has turned into a political clash between
Turkey and the Armenian diaspora; an apology will implicitly mean
Turkey’s acceptance of defeat in this clash. Secondly, at a time
when relations with Armenia have become relatively smooth, granting
an apology would be a last resort for Turkish foreign policy makers.
Above all, it should be noted that an apology alone will not satisfy
the demands of the Armenian diaspora. What Armenians are looking
for is an apology accompanied by an open acknowledgement by which
Turkish authorities admit that Ottoman authorities committed the
crime of genocide against the Armenian population in the early 20th
century. There is no single guarantee or assurance indicating that
further material demands will not follow such an acknowledgement and
apology. Even though some Armenians declared that what they want from
Turkey is a mere apology and an open acknowledgement of the commission
of an Armenian genocide, those who have openly promoted the Armenian
genocide claims have not so far given any assurance that they will
not claim material remedies or reparations for the alleged genocide.
Besides, even if they offer such an assurance, Turkey’s
acknowledgement of the genocide claims will not be an ordinary
decision that will culminate in an apology and acceptance with mild
repercussions. Acknowledgement of the commission of the crime of
genocide against Armenians will inevitably entail reparations and
material compensations to be made to the victims or their legal
inheritors. Such an option will not be acceptable to Turkish foreign
policy-makers.
More importantly, as a greater number of states have promulgated bills
and enacted laws recognizing the alleged Armenian genocide and making
its denial a punishable offense, the issue has become more politicized
and internationalized; in such an environment, the problem has become
even more crucial for Turkish foreign policy. For this reason, the
issue of forcing Turkey to accept the Armenian genocide, a key goal
that has been promoted and emphasized by the diaspora, is a matter of
image and prestige for Turkish foreign policy-makers. In other words,
this issue has turned into an element of political clash between
Turkey and the Armenian diaspora. In a sense, they are rivals over this
issue; Turkey’s apology and acknowledgement of the Armenian genocide
claims would mean that Turkey accepts defeat in this struggle. For
this reason, Turkey will make an official and formal apology for the
"Great Catastrophe" only if it is left with no other choice.
In such an environment where the uncompromising stance of the Armenian
diaspora, which excludes opportunities for dialogue with Turkey as a
viable option, is visibly prevalent, Turkey’s official apology will be
out of the question. Of course, Turkish policy-makers will make some
efforts to improve bilateral relations between Turkey and Armenia,
but in such cases, it will strive to hold the initiative. Conversely,
an apology, which will actually mean acceptance and endorsement of the
claims, voiced within the Armenian genocide campaign, promoted and
sponsored mostly by the Armenian diaspora, will not be a humanistic
move; rather, it will be a political step that will undermine Turkey’s
prestige and image.
For this reason, even though the emphasis in the recent civilian
initiative is mostly humanistic and free of political considerations,
Turkey’s official apology will never bear such meaning. Turkey’s
official and formal apology will mean at least partial acknowledgement
and endorsement of Armenian genocide claims, and this will cause
serious political troubles for Turkey. This, of course, does not
necessarily mean that Turkey can never take some humane steps, but
such steps will not include a formal apology.
>From one perspective, this actually suggests that what makes a formal
apology by Turkey out of the question and an impossible choice is
the attempts by the Armenian diaspora to politicize the issue. An
apology, which will mean submission to the demands of the diaspora,
which will be held responsible for taking the issue to such extreme and
sensitive dimensions, will not be acceptable to Turkey for political
reasons. Considering the recent improvement and progress in dialogue
attempts with the Armenian administration, it becomes evident that
Turkey will never take the option of offering a formal apology into
account in an environment where its options will likely proliferate
and be diversified.
*Dr. Cenap Cakmak is an instructor at Mugla University and a senior
researcher at the Wise Men Center for Strategic Research (BÄ°LGESAM).
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