The Messenger , Georgia
Dec 30 2008
Stability platform rumours rise again
By Messenger Staff
Tuesday, December 30
In the summer when the Russian invasion was at its peak it was
announced that the Turkish leadership had suggested a new political
formula ` a platform in the Caucasus guaranteeing peace, stability and
security in the region. Now it is again reported that the document is
being discussed and getting ready to be signed. However Georgian
political analysts and journalists are emphasizing that they don’t
know the detailed text of this platform and therefore cannot comment
on the pros and cons of it.
Any kind of agreement which guarantees peace and stability in the
region is welcome, but it is regretted that the Georgian Foreign
Ministry did not provide a timely Georgian translation of the document
and moreover, did not provide more details of it. What we do know
however is that the Turkish initiative envisages the document being
signed by Turkey, Russia and the three South Caucasus States. Even
this creates an awkward situation. Several entities who claim to have
a legitimate interest in this region, such as Iran, the EU and the
USA, appear to be excluded from the agreement and this may impact on
their attitude towards the countries that sign it and the assistance
they might be willing to give to states which thereby do not take
their interests into account.
In 1922 an agreement was signed in Kars which was controversial and
did not leave any of the South Caucasus states very happy. Today the
situation is even more complicated. Russia has introduced two puppet
states into the region by snatching Georgian territories ` the
so-called Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Of course Moscow will try to
legalize these fictions by fixing their puppet leaders’ signatures on
the document. This will not be accepted by Georgia, and we can say
this with 100 % confidence. Hopefully none of the parties to the
platform would support Moscow if it tried to take this initiative,
assuming there was only one version of the document, and everyone knew
who had signed it, which is something no one can now be sure of after
what happened with the Sarkozy-brokered ceasefire document in August.
Turkey is most likely interested in promoting its economic interests
above all by guaranteeing an uninterrupted flow of Caspian Basin
energy to the West via Turkey. It also wants to claim leadership in
the region and possibly untie the Karabakh knot and reconcile
Azerbaijan and Armenia. However Turkey understands that it cannot do
all this alone, without Russia, which is openly stating its dubious
militarily claims in the Caucasus which do not square with being part
of an agreement signed by Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia and
Georgia. The Kremlin has also tried to resolve Karabakh problem
itself, without Turkey. President Medvedev organized a meeting between
the Azeri and Armenian Presidents in Moscow, though this has had no
visible results, which might demonstrate that the meeting was just an
attempt to pretend Russia is a peacemaker, as some said at the time.
Georgian journalists and political analysts hope that before any
document is signed its terms will be made public and become a matter
of expert discussion. This is too important an issue to be entrusted
to politicians alone, whose judgment on a range of issues has already
proven fallible. Nor should signing up to a platform end at the
signing ceremony. The stability of the entire region, our country and
the welfare of many nations is at stake, and bits of paper achieve
nothing unless you make them do so.