The importance of Turkey’s EU bid for Georgia
The Messenger, Georgia
Dec 21 2004
The historical decision made by the EU to start negotiations with
Turkey in regard to the nation’s possible accession into the union
has inspired great interest in the South Caucasus. It is clear that
negotiations will not be finished in the near future, but the beginning
of this process and its result will have a crucial impact on Georgia
and the South Caucasus as a whole.
It will not be easy for the EU to rule on Turkey’s entry into the
organization. As pointed out by the newspaper 24 Saati, Turkey
is a very big, rather poor Muslim country located mostly outside
of Europe. The EU now must determine which result will bring more
problems: allowing Turkey to join or rejecting the country’s bid.
An EU refusal would taint the legacy of early 20th century leader
Kemal Ataturk, who introduced numerous radical reforms in an effort
to Europeanize the country. Turkey’s main strategy over the better
part of the last century has been to strengthen ties with Europe.
Therefore, not admitting Turkey into the EU may to some extent result
in the country’s “returning to the East.” This could subsequently
become a source of instability at the edge of Europe and jeopardize
the EU’s future welfare.
Proponents of Turkey’s accession point out that the nation plays
the role of a bridge between Europe and the Muslim world. It is also
worthy of consideration that Turkey is one of the top allies of the
United States and a member of NATO.
Negotiations regarding Turkey’s entry into the EU will start on
October 5, 2005. Any of the EU’s 25 member states have the right
to veto and many already stand in firm opposition. Turkey will have
to fulfill many demands issued by the union, first and foremost the
official recognition of Cyprus, without which the negotiations will
not be held. Meanwhile, this issue will face serious debates in the
Turkish Parliament.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan issued a statement in
Belgium that Turkey deserves to be considered a European country given
its mentality, geographical location and the westernizing reforms
it has carried out. Nevertheless, there is far from a consensus
within the country itself as many on the Anatolian peninsula are
protesting their government’s westward course due to religious and
cultural differences. This means that eventually Turkey as a whole
has to make a crucial decision itself as to whether it wants to be
accepted as a European nation.
Accepting Turkey into the EU will have a tremendous influence on the
entire South Caucasus. Turkey is not only an “overseas neighbor,” like
new members Romania and Bulgaria, but shares a land border with all
three South Caucasian countries. The issue is of critical importance
for Georgia, which has EU ambitions of its own and considers Turkey’s
entry into the EU as key to its foreign policy interests.
Turkey’s entry into EU will bring benefits for European countries as
well from the point of view of energy supply. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
oil pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzrum natural gas pipeline will
enable Europe not to rely only on Russian energy suppliers as it
does now. Potential competition for Russia’s hold on the EU energy
has caused much concern in Moscow.
Georgia’s prospects for EU membership are at this point remote. Many
reforms must be carried out, as is the case with Georgia’s neighbors
Armenia and Azerbaijan. It has been remarked many times that the EU
would prefer having a dialogue on the EU entry of all three South
Caucasus countries if and when certain standards are met by these
states. Turkey’s acceptance into the EU will automatically accelerate
Azerbaijan’s drive towards the union and inspire it to move closer
to EU standards. Armenia, on the other hand, has expressed negative
feelings about the prospects of Turkey joining the EU.
Yerevan protesters sent an appeal to the EU leadership to this
effect. Despite being Russia’s strategic partner in the South Caucasus,
Armenia still considers EU entry a top priority. But if Turkey is
accepted, Armenia will withdraw its application.
If Turkey does join the EU, it will further polarize the situation in
the South Caucasus. Georgia and Azerbaijan will be inspired to move
forward, whereas Armenia will fall further under Russian influence.
This, of course, is only speculation based on current trends. History
is full of sudden twists, and therefore it is not out of the question
that events in Armenia will develop in a radically different way.
The long list of necessary reforms issued to Turkey by the EU is
exemplary for Georgia. This shows that the union will be strict
in demanding that all potential partner states fulfill all their
commitments.