NEW U.S. ADMINISTRATION’S POLICY ON ‘GENOCIDE’ TO AFFECT TURKEY-ARMENIA RELATIONS
Trend News Agency
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Jan 23 2009
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan, Baku, Jan. 23 /corr. Trend News E.Tariverdiyeva /
This year can become the year of normalization of the relations
between Turkey and Armenia, and the policy of the new American
Administration regarding "genocide" will affect these relations,
however, not compulsorily negatively, experts consider.
"Incorrect step by the USA can damage the process of normalizing the
relations between Armenia and Turkey", said last week the Foreign
Minister of Turkey Ali Babajan, writes the Turkish Hurriyet Daily
News newspaper reported.
During his pre-election campaign, the U.S. President Barack Obama,
who took the office on Jan.20, qualified the events of 1915 in Ottoman
Empire as genocide.
Being appointed to the post of the Secretary of State, Hillary
Clinton noted that the new U.S. Administration will be sequential in
this question. During the election campaign Clinton unambiguously
determined the position regarding "genocide". "I believe that the
tragic events, organized and realized by the Ottoman Empire against the
Armenian population, will force the Congress and the U.S. President
to recognize and remember the genocide of Armenians," Clinton said
during the presidential campaign last summer.
After this, the statement by the Foreign Ministry of Turkey warned
the new U.S. Administration against the recognition of the "genocide"
of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire during the First World War, saying
that "to consider the position of third country in this question
is irrational".
The diplomatic relations are absent between Armenia and Turkey. In
1993 Turkey closed borders with Armenia in connection with the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, in which it supports Azerbaijan.
On Sep. 6, 2008 at the invitation of the President of Armenia Serj
Sargsyan, the President of Turkey Abdullah Gul arrived in Yerevan to
watch the football match between the teams of Armenia and Turkey.
According to the observers, America’s interference in the issue of
recognition of "genocide" will affect the Turkish-Armenian relations,
however not negatively.
The new U.S. Administration or its part supports Armenia in the
problem of "genocide", and this strengthens the position of Armenia
in the world, also, in the Armenian-Turkish relations, said Russian
political scientist Mikhail Remizov.
According to him, improvement in the relations of Yerevan and
Washington under strengthening of the lobbying positions of Armenia in
the USA and, on the other hand, cooling of relations between Turkey
and USA as a result can lead to changes and cause an improvement in
the relations of Yerevan and Ankara.
"Since Turkey ceases to be the protege of the USA in the region, it
must transform into regional leader, and for this, Turkey must solve
all questions with Armenia," Remizov, director of the Institute of
National Strategy, told TrendNews.
After Barack Obama takes the office of the U.S. President, it needs
to expect "real breakthrough" in the issue of Congress’s adoption of
a resolution on recognition of "genocide" of the Armenians, said the
director of the Armenian Institute of Oriental Study of the National
Academy of Sciences of Armenia, Ruben Safrastyan, Mediamax reported.
"Certain positive changes are possible in the Armenian-Turkish
relations during this year," said Safrastyan.
"These will mainly be caused by how Turkish diplomacy will be able
to give up its policy of pressure on Armenia and gradually will
begin to approach the position of Armenia, exactly the establishment
of relations without any pre-conditions," he told journalists on
Wednesday.
Turkey advances a number of pre-conditions for establishing bilateral
relations, in particular Armenia’s refusal from the policy of the
international recognition of "genocide" of the Armenians in the Ottoman
Empire during the First World War, and also Armenia’s recognition of
Turkey’s borders.
According to the Turkish political scientist Sinan Ogan, precisely the
loyalty of the American Administration to the question of "genocide"
will accelerate the process of establishing relations between Turkey
and Armenia. America tries to establish Turkish-Armenian relations,
without acting as mediator, since it fears to spoil its relations
with Ankara, Ogan said.
"Obama’s Administration is prepared to recognize the fact of
"genocide", and therefore Turkey will attempt to establish relations
with Armenia before the fact of "genocide" is recognized in the White
House," Ogan, director of the Turksam Center for Scientific Studies,
told TrendNews in a telephone conversation from Istanbul.
Russian political scientist also considers that Turkey, as the strong
side of dialogue, in light of worsening in the relations with the
USA can think more constructively than earlier with regards the same
theme of genocide. "Possibly there are some intermediate versions
between the single-valued recognition and the categorical denial,
and they can be begun to operate," said Remizov.
According to him, simple step is the initiation of the establishment of
a commission for the more detailed study of the question. "Establishing
a commission on the joint of historical science and diplomacy can put
the beginning of a constructive dialogue and will help the sides not
connect the current political relation with this question rigidly,"
Remizov said.
American political scientist Mark N. Katz considers that Turkey and
Armenia can improve relations soon. "For Turkey, this is something
that would improve its image in the West, and thus help its chances
for entry into the EU," Katz, a professor of government and politics
at George Mason University, told TrendNews via e-mail.
According to Katz, the August events testified that Armenia’s tight
alliance with Russia is not necessarily in Armenia’s interest. "Armenia
needs more friends, including Turkey, so that it does not have to
rely so heavily on Russia," he said.
Large-scale military operations were launched in South Ossetia at
night of 8 August. Georgian troops entered Tskhinvali, capital of
South Ossetia. Later Russian troops seized the town and drove Georgian
troops back to Georgia. On 26 August, Russia recognized independence
of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and established diplomatic relations
on 9 September.
"In this dialogue precisely Turkey is the strong side, precisely it is
interested in solving this problem in order to strengthen its regional
influence, whereas Armenia is extremely vulnerable," said Remizov.
R.Agayev (Moscow), B.Hasanov (Baku) contributed to the article.