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Armenian Center for National and International Studies
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February 11, 2009
ACNIS Director Richard Giragosian Comments on Turkish Press Report
Claiming "Breakthrough" over Nagorno Karabagh
Yerevan–Armenian Center for National and International Studies
(ACNIS) Director Richard Giragosian issued a statement today
commenting on a recent report in the Turkish daily newspaper Hurriyet
claiming that a new "partial agreement" has been reached between
Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabagh, brokered by Turkish
Foreign Minister Ali Babacan. The report alleged that Armenia and
Azerbaijan reached a new agreement on four key points of a draft peace
plan, including the reopening of road and rail links between
Azerbaijan and Armenia and the deployment of an undefined
international peacekeeping force to the region.
While today’s report in the Turkish media remains unsubstantiated by
any Armenian, Azerbaijani or Turkish officials, the rather sensational
claims of a sudden breakthrough over the unresolved Karabagh conflict
raises several concerns. Most notably, the unconfirmed report reveals
the danger posed by the overall lack of transparency and inadequate
public awareness of the status of the peace process.
By its very nature, the closed and secretive process of mediation by
the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Minsk
Group only fosters misunderstandings and misinformation, especially as
neither the Armenian nor the Azerbaijani governments are doing enough
to prepare their constituencies for a possible peace deal.
At the same time, however, there is no viable alternative to the OSCE
Minsk Group as a mediator for the Karabagh conflict. The Minsk Group
is the sole international body empowered to manage the mediation
effort aimed at resolving the Nagorno Karabagh conflict and has been
long engaged in conducting delicate diplomacy toward that end.
But the OSCE Minsk Group format is also structurally flawed by the
absence of the democratically-elected representatives of the Nagorno
Karabagh Republic (NKR) which, as a party to the conflict, must be
afforded a more direct and formal role in the peace process.
Moreover, the failure to incorporate Karabagh in the peace talks as a
party of equal standing only questions the viability of reaching a
negotiated resolution capable of meeting the minimum standards of
security and sustainability.
The recognition of the vital and primary role of the OSCE Minsk Group
as the mediator for the Karabagh also means that Turkey can have no
direct role in the peace process. By virtue of its close strategic
relationship with Azerbaijan, and in terms of Turkey’s open
diplomatic, economic and military support for Azerbaijan, including
its ongoing blockade of Armenia, Turkey can not been accepted as a
neutral broker or mediator of the Karabagh conflict.
On a broader level, the lack of information concerning the peace
process only leads to misinformation, endangering the already fragile
and delicate peace talks. For Armenia, the lack of information only
fuels misunderstanding and fosters a deeper sense of apathy among the
population. The Armenian government must do much more to educate and
involve its citizens in the peace process.
Equally important, Azerbaijan has also failed to properly prepare its
public for any possible progress in the peace talks. In addition, the
secrecy surrounding the peace talks has only strengthened the militant
rhetoric of its leadership and has radicalized the discourse within
Azerbaijani society. Although the August 2008 war in Georgia only
reaffirmed the danger of a sudden outbreak of hostilities in the
region, Azerbaijani leaders continue to dangerously promote an
irresponsible language of aggression and threat, tending to exacerbate
regional insecurity.
Therefore, the recent revelations of the Turkish media suggesting a
secret peace deal over Karabagh only serves to complicate efforts to
forge a fair and lasting peace. Most crucially, the lack of
information and transparency encourages a dangerous trend of
misinformation and disinformation that entrenches stereotypes and
emboldens more extreme views. Thus, the failure of all sides to
prepare and engage their publics in the peace process only reveals the
deficit of prudent statesmanship and proper leadership.
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The Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS) is
a leading independent strategic research center located in Yerevan,
Armenia. As an independent, objective institution committed to
conducting professional policy research and analysis, ACNIS strives to
raise the level of public debate and seeks to broaden public
engagement in the public policy process, as well as fostering greater
and more inclusive public knowledge. Founded in 1994, ACNIS is the
institutional initiative of Raffi K. Hovannisian, Armenia’s first
Minister of Foreign Affairs. Over the past fifteen years, ACNIS has
acquired a prominent reputation as a primary source of professional
independent research and analysis covering a wide range of national
and international policy issues.
For further information on the Center call (37410) 52-87-80 or
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