DEEP CONCERN IN BAKU AFTER CSTO NEWS
Fariz Ismailzade
"Noravank" Foundation
12 February 2009
The summit of the heads of states of the Collective Security Treaty
Organization (CSTO) on February 4 in Moscow brought unexpected, yet
alarming news for Baku. The members of the organization have decided to
create collective rapid reaction forces: the first ever joint military
forces between these republics of the former Soviet Union. Regional
analysts have immediately labeled it as another attempt by the Kremlin
to come closer to the restoration of the Soviet Union. In fact, the
news was followed by Kyrgyzstan’s decision to evict the American Manas
military base from its territory –another sign of Russia’s growing
military domination in the post-Soviet space (see EDM, February 4).
For Azerbaijan, the establishment of collective rapid reaction
forces by the CSTO creates a number of potential security
challenges. Armenia, engaged in a long-standing conflict with
Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, is an active member of CSTO and
officials in Yerevan do not rule out the use of collective rapid
reaction forces against Azerbaijan. Head of Armenia’s Parliamentary
committee for defense, national security and internal affairs Artur
Agabekyan said, "If the military activities in Nagorno-Karabakh resume,
Armenia might use these forces." He also added that "We are happy abo
ut this decision, as it will allow us to combat future challenges. Now
that this decision is made, it is time now to think about concrete
actions about the location of these forces" (Panarmenian.net,
February 8).
Another high ranking military official in Armenia, Head of the
Institute for National Strategic Studies at the Ministry of Defense,
Ayk Kotajyan said that, "the decision at the Moscow summit creates
solid political, military and legal basis for the collective defense
of members of CSTO" (Panorama.am, February 5). And Armenia’s President
Serj Sarkisian, in his meeting with journalists in Moscow, expressed
confidence that the establishment of collective rapid reaction
forces will further strengthen stability in the South Caucasus
(Novosti-Armenia, February 5).
In Baku, this news was met with growing concern amongst the Azerbaijani
leadership about the true intentions of Russia in the region. Despite
the fact that Moscow is one of the three co-chairs of the so called
Minsk group of the OSCE, charged with handling the mediation process,
the recent events may bring a cold breeze in bilateral relations
between Moscow and Baku. Two months ago, Azerbaijani officials
criticized Russia’s $800 million arms donation to Armenia. Then,
the news of Armenia asking the Kremlin for financial assistance to
overcome the negative consequences of the global financial crisis
raised eyebrows in Baku. The initial agreement for Russia to lend
$500 mi llion to Armenia led to questions in Azerbaijan as to how
Armenia will repay these loans and whether it will prove another step
towards the complete purchase of Armenia’s economic assets by Russian
state-owned companies, like in the past ().
The opposition Musavat party in Azerbaijan issued a statement,
calling the CSTO’s decision a "threat against Azerbaijan." And the
Liberal Democratic Party also urged the government of Azerbaijan
to consider pulling out of the CIS. Vafa Guluzadeh, former foreign
policy advisor to Azerbaijani Presidents, commented on the current
situation by relating the pressures from Moscow to Azerbaijan to the
plans to build the Nabucco gas pipeline.
"However, Russia will fail to start another Armenian-Azerbaijani war"
(Day.az, February 3).
Most analysts in Baku believe that the establishment of the CSTO
collective rapid reaction forces will not radically change the military
situation in the region, because Russia was and remains Armenia’s
strongest ally whether such forces exist or not. In the longer term,
Russia will not abandon its support for Armenia’s occupation of
Karabakh and even without the CSTO, the Kremlin already has sufficient
political and military tools at its disposal to intervene in the
event of another outbreak of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.
Vugar Seidov, political analyst and reporter for Azertaj, called
the premature cheerfulness in Yerevan as a "pathetic attempt by
Armenia20to seal the occupation of Azerbaijani lands by others’
hands" (). Seidov doubted
that Azerbaijan’s friendly neighbors, such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan,
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will send any forces against it, should
Baku’s government decide to use force to restore its territorial
integrity –a right given to it by the UN charter.