ARMENIAN ECONOMIST CALMS MARKET AMID NATIONAL CURRENCY DEVALUATION
Armenian Public TV
March 3 2009
Armenia
[Presenter] The dollar and its influence on the commodity market are
the topic of the day. How can one figure out this situation? Vache
Gabrielyan, deputy chairman of the Central Bank, will help our audience
at this moment.
[Passage omitted: Presenter welcomes Gabrielyan in the studio]
[Presenter addressing Gabrielyan] The Central Bank forecast today
that the exchange rate will not surpass the level of 380 drams,
but it has exceeded the level. What are the reasons for such a major
demand for the US dollar? Who are those using dollars and is there
a real demand for the foreign currency, in particular, the dollar,
in our country? Who benefit, and who lose?
[Gabrielyan] The Central Bank’s forecast refers to the stabilization
rate for an average period – a year, that is the market price, which
is the most proper for economy. As for exceeding or not exceeding the
mark of 380, according to our estimations, this is mere speculation
and does not express long-term fundamental economic provisions.
[Passage omitted: the banker describes the situation as a temporary
period]
As for the demand, who are buyers, why has the demand gone up? As a
rule, the buyers are importers; people who go abroad; those who need
to import something. However, recently, as there were expectations of
devaluation of the dram and appreciation of the dollar, a wide-ranging
layers of the population also started buying dollar. I believe that now
when the precision has been made, in essence, no major expectations
should emerge; according to our assessments, the demand for dollar
should essentially drop.