Milliyet, Turkey
March 11 2009
The New Turkish-American Scenario Could Bring Good Things!
by Hasan Cemal
A new scenario is being written in Turkish-American relations. If
these scenarios are staged and acted out well it could be advantageous
to both countries.
In this regard, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit to Ankara
was a positive one. Clearly, the role of leading man in the new
Turkish-American screenplay will be played by President Obama. This
may be stating the obvious but the US President’s visit to Turkey in
April is very important in many respects not least for its symbolic
value.
If Ankara and Washington can put the pieces in their proper places
with this visit then a new era in relations between these two
countries really could begin. This will bring common interests and
regional stability.
There are already signs bubbling to the surface that this new scenario
is being written well even now and that some parts of it have already
begun to be acted out.
Turkey’s and Israel’s foreign ministers Babacan and Livni met in
Brussels. President Gul is scheduled to go to Israel.
There are signs of a normalization of relations between Turkey and
Armenia. Turkey might reopen the border.
It is very likely that the Armenian genocide issue is going to be
relegated to the bottom of Washington’s in-box.
As Turkish-Armenian relations enter a process of normalization you
will see one day that the genocide issue has relocated from
Ankara-Washington to Ankara-Yerevan.
In the meantime, President Gul’s trip to Baghdad is part of this new
scenario. The crux of this business:
Ankara-Arbil relations.
Ankara’s relations with Mas’ud Barzani are considered a topic that the
American administration is very fussy about because this directly
concerns stability in Iraq. And these relations are still on track for
improvement.
This is a complex issue and includes the PKK as well.
Washington, Ankara, Baghdad and Arbil. None of them want the PKK to be
a pain in the neck any more.
This is why one of the subtexts for this new screenplay for
Turkish-American relations includes ejecting the PKK from northern
Iraq, bringing them down off the mountains and surrendering their
arms.
A complex matter, no doubt.
I wonder if Prime Minister Erdogan is going to demonstrate the
political will and resolve that this topic requires once the elections
are out of the way?
We can say this:
If certain practical steps can be taken in Ankara in the matters of
the Kurdish problem and the Armenian issue…
If the doors to normalizing relations between Turkey and Armenia plus
Turkey and the northern Iraqi Kurdish administration can be opened…
If Washington and Ankara write the scenario for these topics well and
act them out well then the pertinent countries will be winners, along
with regional stability and peace as I just pointed out. Furthermore,
America has certain expectations of Turkey with respect to Afghanistan
and US withdrawal from Iraq.
In addition, the roles that Turkey can play in the Israel-Syria field
and concerning Hamas and Iran are definitely grabbing the Obama
administration’s interest.
That is politics for you.
To grasp shared points of interest and common balances is a fine art
indeed. You need both political will and creative diplomacy.
If the new screenplay is edited well it will also broaden Turkey’s
field of manoeuvre vis-Ã -vis the EU. The support of the new American
administration could make it easier to navigate certain bottlenecks in
Turkish-EU relations such as Cyprus.
A Turkey that is on good terms with both the EU and the United States
might be able to ride out the waves of the global economic crisis
after singing a deal with the IMF following the elections.
Yes, this is an optimistic column and this optimism is underpinned by
the importance of the earlier-than-expected visit that Obama is going
to make to Turkey.
Concerning optimism, I have to point out that a team that really
appreciates Turkey came to power in Washington when Obama became
President.
President Obama’s administration does not want to see a Turkey that is
moving away from Europe, embracing Eurasia and the Islamic world and
that has a second-class democracy.
On the contrary, the Obama administration is laden with people who
think that it would be in America’s best interests for a stable Turkey
that has set EU membership as its goal by having a first-class
democracy.
Among these people are the pragmatic and realistic Secretary of State
Clinton and Secretary of Defence Gates. President Obama’s National
Security Adviser at the White House is the retired General Jim Jones,
a former Commander in Chief of NATO and someone who knows the Turkish
military very well indeed.
Even more interesting is Philip H Gordon, whom President Obama stated
last Saturday he would make Assistant Secretary of State for Europe
and Eurasia at the White House.
It is our wish that this scenario is played out well and that
President Obama’s incredibly important visit to Turkey heralds a fine
new era in relations.
[translated from Turkish]