PRESS RELEASE
Armenian Center for National and International Studies
75 Yerznkian Street
Yerevan 375033, Armenia
Tel: (+374 – 10) 52.87.80 or 27.48.18
Fax: (+374 – 10) 52.48.46
E-mail: [email protected] or [email protected]
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April 1, 2009
ACNIS Presents New Policy Brief on `The Military Balance of Power in
the South Caucasus.’
Yerevan, April 1, 2009– The Armenian Center for National and
International Studies (ACNIS) convened a special roundtable seminar
discussion to present a new special publication entitled, `The
Military Balance of Power in the South Caucasus.’
Welcoming the participants and attendees, ACNIS Director Richard
Giragosian explained that the new ACNIS report, the second in a series
of ACNIS Policy Briefs, examines recent shifts in the military and
security situation in the region, including a specific focus on
developments since the August 2008 war in Georgia. He further noted
that the report includes an assessment of the current state of the
Azerbaijani military, and an analysis of the implications for the
security of Armenia and Nagorno Karabagh.
The discussion featured three main presentations, with ACNIS Director
Richard Giragosian offering a brief presentation on the `Shifting
Military Balance of Power in the South Caucasus,’ ACNIS Senior Analyst
Hovsep Khurshudian evaluating the `Impact of the Global Economic
Crisis on the Regional Balance of Power,’ and ACNIS Director of
Administration Dr. Karapet Kalenchian offering a presentation on the
`Political Military Problems of the South Caucasus Region.’ ACNIS
Senior Analyst Manvel Sargsyan also provided concluding comments.
Giragosian noted that `nearly eight months after a brief, but deadly,
war in Georgia in August 2008, the outlook for security and stability
in the South Caucasus remains far from certain,’ and that the war `had
dramatically altered the geopolitical landscape of the region,
consolidating a clear reassertion of Russian power and influence and
forcibly `resolving’ two of the region’s three formerly `frozen’
conflicts.’ He also stressed that `the Georgian war raised new doubts
over Georgia’s strategic role as the regional `center of gravity’ for
the West and effectively ended Georgia’s hopes to join the NATO
alliance.’
`But most importantly,’ he argued, `was the fact that the August 2008
war further demonstrated a dramatic shift in the region’s delicate
balance of power, which has already reconfigured the threat perception
and military posture of the region.’ More specifically, Giragosian
asserted that `although it is now clear that the shifting military
balance of power remains one of the most crucial considerations for
regional security and stability, the real imperatives are internal in
nature and depend far more on institutional legitimacy, the rule of
law and good governance, and on local economics and politics than
grand geopolitics.’
ACNIS Senior Analyst Hovsep Khurshudian then evaluated the `Impact of
the Global Economic Crisis on the Regional Balance of Power,’ noting
that Azerbaijan had based its 2009 state budget on the high price of
oil. He added that the drop in the oil prices since August 2008 had a
sharply adverse effect on the country’s economy, however, because
between 65-70 percent of Azerbaijan’s state budget relies on
energy-related income. Khurshudian also underscored that `even if
Azerbaijan’s state budget is reduced, this hardly will reflect any
change in the country’s military spending.’ But this point, according
to Khurshudian, can not be ruled out either, especially `if we take
into account that Azerbaijan’s leadership is intelligent enough to
understand that the current economic conditions in both countries is
such that any active military operation could destroy their
economies.’
For his part, ACNIS Director of Administration Dr. Karapet Kalenchian
presented an assessment of the `Political Military Problems of the
South Caucasus Region.’ He emphasized that `the regional neighbors
have huge armies, whereas the regional countries possess armed forces
that can withstand only one another, and, objectively speaking, they
can not stand against the military potential of the neighboring
countries.’ Therefore, Kalenchian argued, the political component of
stability assumes a pivotal role in terms of the security of the
regional countries. `In other words, the armed forces in the region
cannot be self-sufficient factors in the security of those countries.
And after the events that occurred in Georgia last August, Azerbaijan
would hardly carry out any military operation against Nagorno Karabagh
without the consent of Turkey, Russia, the United States, England, and
France, which are those countries that have huge interests in the
South Caucasus region. Also, we must not exclude Iran. And even if
Azerbaijan receives that consent, it will need to think considerably
before taking any military action. The Georgian incident is always
evident for all,’ Kalenchian stated.
Closing the session, ACNIS Senior Analyst Manvel Sargsian then
provided concluding comments and underlined the need to specifically
focus on the possibility of radical changes in the policies of `world
powers, including new US policy with respect to Russia and Iran.’
Sargsian went on to say that `Russia’s and Iran’s possible agreement
with new US proposals can substantially change the geopolitical
situation in the South Caucasus region, and this will definitely have
an impact on Armenia’s security.’
The formal presentations were then followed by questions, answers, and
a lively exchange among many leading Armenian analysts and experts, as
well as several officials and diplomatic representatives.
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The Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS) is
a leading independent strategic research center located in Yerevan,
Armenia. As an independent, objective institution committed to
conducting professional policy research and analysis, ACNIS strives to
raise the level of public debate and seeks to broaden public
engagement in the public policy process, as well as fostering greater
and more inclusive public knowledge. Founded in 1994, ACNIS is the
institutional initiative of Raffi K. Hovannisian, Armenia’s first
Minister of Foreign Affairs. Over the past fifteen years, ACNIS has
acquired a prominent reputation as a primary source of professional
independent research and analysis covering a wide range of national
and international policy issues.
For further information on the Center call (37410) 52-87-80 or
27-48-18; fax (37410) 52-48-46; email [email protected] or [email protected];
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