THE MILITARY BALANCE OF POWER IN THE SOUTH CAUCAS
A1+
07:45 pm | April 01, 2009
Politics
The Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS)
convened a special roundtable seminar discussion to present a new
special publication entitled, "The Military Balance of Power in the
South Caucasus."
Welcoming the participants and attendees, ACNIS Director Richard
Giragosian explained that the new ACNIS report, the second in a
series of ACNIS Policy Briefs, examines recent shifts in the military
and security situation in the region, including a specific focus on
developments since the August 2008 war in Georgia. He further noted
that the report includes an assessment of the current state of the
Azerbaijani military, and an analysis of the implications for the
security of Armenia and Nagorno Karabagh.
Giragosian noted that "nearly eight months after a brief, but deadly,
war in Georgia in August 2008, the outlook for security and stability
in the South Caucasus remains far from certain," and that the war
"had dramatically altered the geopolitical landscape of the region,
consolidating a clear reassertion of Russian power and influence
and forcibly ‘resolving’ two of the region’s three formerly ‘frozen’
conflicts." He also stressed that "the Georgian war raised new doubts
over Georgia’s strategic role as the regional ‘center of gravity’
for the West and effectively ended Georgia’s hopes to join the NATO
alliance."
"But most importantly," he argued, "was the fact that the August 2008
war further demonstrated a dramatic shift in the region’s delicate
balance of power, which has already reconfigured the threat perception
and military posture of the region." More specifically, Giragosian
asserted that "although it is now clear that the shifting military
balance of power remains one of the most crucial considerations for
regional security and stability, the real imperatives are internal
in nature and depend far more on institutional legitimacy, the rule
of law and good governance, and on local economics and politics than
grand geopolitics."
For his part, ACNIS Director of Administration Dr. Karapet Kalenchian
presented an assessment of the "Political Military Problems of the
South Caucasus Region." He emphasized that "the regional neighbors have
huge armies, whereas the regional countries possess armed forces that
can withstand only one another, and, objectively speaking, they can
not stand against the military potential of the neighboring countries."
Therefore, Kalenchian argued, the political component of stability
assumes a pivotal role in terms of the security of the regional
countries. "In other words, the armed forces in the region cannot be
self-sufficient factors in the security of those countries. And after
the events that occurred in Georgia last August, Azerbaijan would
hardly carry out any military operation against Nagorno Karabagh
without the consent of Turkey, Russia, the United States, England,
and France, which are those countries that have huge interests in the
South Caucasus region. Also, we must not exclude Iran. And even if
Azerbaijan receives that consent, it will need to think considerably
before taking any military action. The Georgian incident is always
evident for all," Kalenchian stated.