HULIQ, SC
June 13 2009
The President Of Azerbaijan In Hard Position
After the `home analyses’ followed St. Petersburg meeting between the
presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliev has probably
understood that the only logic point for resuming the negotiation
process over the conflict within `Madrid principles’ is the grant of
such a status to Nagorno Karabakh that would be accepted both
internationally and by Baku first of all and exclude its legal
belonging to Azerbaijan.
One must not rule out that just Turkish Diplomacy has helped him to
learn such kind of nuances, though being a graduate of Moscow State
Institute of International relations Aliev, has as good judge of
politics as his late father who had actually agreed to the suggestion
of the mediators in Ki West but returning to Baku broke his promise
with a motivation `of being pressured at home’.
That time both the mediators and the Armenian side understood elder
Aliev as the last hadn’t a lifelong presidential mandate. As to his
son, something is behind comprehension. The opposition is destroyed,
he is enabled with `constitutional right’ to be elected as president
for countless times and a process of `constitutional reforms’ is
launched throughout the country. In case the reforms are fulfilled,
what is undoubtedly realistic, all Azerbaijani’elective’ officials
will get rid of the headache upon no need to keep their offices
permanently, more than for two terms.
The matter with ombudsman and Prosecutor General is clear, others are
waiting for their turn. So, it’s hardly probable to speak about
`putting pressure’.
Apparently, Aliev has wrong impression about the negotiations.
The agitation turmoil rose after St. Petersburg meeting comes to prove
that factor. Everybody was unanimously assuring that in the beginning
of July the Presidents of United States, France and Russian will get
together, Armenia’s and Azerbaijani leaders will be invited an the
three `will put pressure on Serzh Sargsyan’. Judging from the fact
that there is a lack of free press as well as free-thinking
politicians or experts in Azerbaijan, we can state that the turmoil
was instructed by President Aliev. Some time passed and Azeris
realized that US President is visiting Moscow with a differently
another agenda, that priority in the South Caucasus for the US is the
Georgian issue, at last no `Moscow summit’ is planned and nobody
intends `to put pressure on Serzh Sargsyan.
Moreover, statements from Washington had an effect of cold shower on
Azerbaijani enthusiasm. First Mathew Bryza stated that the meeting
between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan is unlikely to concur
with Osama’s visit to Moscow, then Deputy State Secretary Philip
Gordon noted in Yerevan that Nagorno Karabakh settlement must be based
on all principles of the international law.
In such a situation Aliev had nothing but `to put all the idlers into
service’.
Novruz Mamedov was the first to speak and in fact refute Foreign
Minister Mamedyarov’s estimation of St. Petersburg meeting as
`constructive’ confirming `some progress’. Being responsible for the
foreign policy of the presidential administration Mamedov certainly
expresses Ilham Aliev’s position. So another question rises. Has
Mamedyarov expressed his own or Aliev’s views?
Deputy Foreign Minister Azimov tried to make some clarifications into
the matter stating that Azerbaijan has principally agreed with the
suggestions of the mediators with reserve that they are expecting
`some changes in Armenian position’. The conclusion has apparently
nothing in common with the reason as the Armenian position is built on
`Madrid Principles’, those are the suggestions by the mediators and if
Azimov himself accepts them his expectations are absolutely illogical.
So as usual Azerbaijan is confronting an alternative to resume or not
the peaceful resolution of the conflict. The scales are pulled to
`not’ option. But a new question raises here – `What motivation’?
Official Baku has leveled its criticism at co-chairing states,
particularly at France and generally international mediators. The idea
of striping France of mediation mandate has been suggested in
Azerbaijani parliament. French National Assembly Deputy Roshbluan’s
visit to Nagorno Karabakh served as a pretext for the suggestion. But
as Azerbaijani hysteria indicates Azerbaijani President has set a task
to form`distrust’ regarded to Minsk Group Co-Chairmanship. It’s no
more credible to rely on the opposition as nobody will believe him
stating that internal political escalations may occur in case of an
agreement with Armenia. So the factor of `a wide public disaffection’
is left to use.
What’s the perspective of using that card?
In other circumstances may be, but today it will hardly work as
`Madrid Principles’ must have generally pleased the Azerbaijani
public. At least the mediators have the right to doubt Azerbaijani
sincerity. That is why Ilham Aliev has chosen a `standby option. The
Executive Secretary of the ruling party Ali Ahmedov has raised an idea
of forming`parity’ in Minsk Group. As Ahmedov thinks, one or some of
the Co-Chairing states support Armenian position so Turkey should get
a Co-Chairing mandate as well with the simplest conclusion ‘to stand
up for Azerbaijani interests’.
Ahmedov is certainly steping in for Ilham Aliev, his immediate boss,
who has repeatedly assured Azerbaijani people that the Co-Chairing
states recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan so `Armenia
has nothing to do but accept the reality’. Does it mean that the
President has deceived his people for years? There are not two
truths. Either Ilham Aliev or Ali Ahmedov lies.
After all another nuance occurs. `Madrid Principles’ imply a respect
to the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan without Nagorno Karabakh
and some adjoining territories. Political scientist Zardusht Alizade,
for example, says that `some five or six districts are proposed to
return to Azerbaijan with the further return of refugees, exploitation
of communications and definition of Nagorno Karabakh status through
referendum is outlined as well’. As Alizade considers Armenian side
stands on including the referendum date in the preliminary
agreement. Azerbaijan opposes saying `that is a matter of
future’. That is the key point of disagreement between the parties,
Alizade says.
To speak on the reasonability of Turkey’s becoming of Minsk Group
Co-Chairing state means an explicit hint at wrecking the talks as not
only Armenia but the Co-Chairing states themselves will refuse the
initiative. Turkey is anyway enough engaged with South Caucasian
matters which actually does not correspond to the international
prestige and potential of that state.
Let’s hope that Ilham Aliev will find enough strength to pass the way
outlined by `nationwide leader’ Heydar Aliev. Remind, Wasn’t the last
expressing an opinion during discussions in the parliament that it’s
unreasonable to think that Nagorno Karabakh will agree to return to
the status as in the former Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan. Elder Aliev
didn’t manage to fulfill the task due to the chief goal to crown his
son as a president. His son is beyond that problem so long until he
reaches his father’s age and Junior Heydar Aliev, his son, to that of
presidential pretensions.
By Vahram Atanesyan, Chairman of the Nagorno Karabakh National
Assembly Committee on International Relations.
Translated from Azg.am