ARMENIA: YEREVAN’S "FOOTBALL DIPLOMACY" FAILS TO SCORE
Marianna Grigoryan
Eurasia Insight
ticles/eav080409b.shtml
8/04/09
After almost a year of discussions and declarations about improving
Armenian-Turkish relations, some Armenian analysts say that the
two countries’ "football diplomacy" initiative appears to have
stalled. They add that Yerevan’s relationship with Ankara appears to
be entering a get-tough phase.
President Serzh Sargsyan’s July 28 declaration that he would travel
to Istanbul for an October 14 World Cup qualifying match between
Turkey and Armenia only "if agreements are observed and visible steps
[toward reopening the two countries’ border] are taken" is driving
the analysts’ conclusions.
Given the welcome reception that Sargsyan’s comments received in
Armenia, the president seems more intent on placating vocal critics
at home, who argue that the dâ"~â~L~Ptente policy toward Ankara
compromises Armenian interests, than he does on forcing Ankara to
reopen its border.
Members of Armenia’s influential Diaspora community have been among
the most outspoken presidential critics. At a July 30 meeting with
young Diaspora Armenians, Sargsyan said that Yerevan had made every
effort to reestablish diplomatic ties with Turkey and have the border
reopened, without insisting on conditions for that rapprochement. The
Turks, Sargsyan claimed, did not follow suit.
In May, Ankara expressed its intent to link the reopening of its border
with Armenia with a comprehensive solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Turkey
closed its Armenian border in 1993 in support for ally Azerbaijan in
its war with Armenia over the breakaway territory.
"We understand very well that Turkey is a big and powerful state. We
know perfectly well Turkey’s role both in our region and in the world,
but, on the other hand, the Turks must accept that we are Armenians,"
Sargsyan told the Diaspora group. "We are an independent state. We
live now in the 21st century and one cannot speak the language of
preconditions now; any precondition, any tough position, sparks a
counter-reaction."
While such statements are likely to win political points with the
Diaspora, one opposition advisor suggested that Armenia’s president
had lost his bearings. "A person would have to be flippant to declare
in April that he is going to Turkey to watch the football match,
and then refuse to go in July," commented Vladimir Karapetian,
foreign relations coordinator for the Armenian National Congress and
a former spokesperson for former Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan
Oskanian. "Sargsyan seems to be lost in a trap, not knowing what
to do."
Meanwhile, other Armenian observers wondered what took the president
so long to start playing hardball with Ankara. "[S]omething is changing
in President Serzh Sargsyan in the right direction, and he has started
to call a spade a spade," said Kiro Manoian, a senior official in the
Armenian Revolutionary Federation-Dashnaktsutiun Party who oversees
political issues and matters related to Ottoman Turkey’s 1915 massacre
of ethnic Armenians. Manoian, along with other opposition members,
contended that Turkey’s interest in negotiations with Armenia stems
from a desire to cater to the international community. He argued that
Armenia should have ceased talks immediately after Turkey’s statement
about Nagorno-Karabakh.
Heritage Party MP Stepan Safarian agreed, but said that Sargsyan’s
declaration was "better late than never." Independent political
analyst Yerevand Bozoian echoed that assessment. "The notorious
football diplomacy is coming to an end," he commented.
But if Sargsyan’s attitude toward Turkey has changed, that does not
mean that his policies will, these commentators predict. The framework
for a Karabakh resolution is reportedly slotted for a makeover by
October, an event that could delay any move to transform Armenia’s
policy toward Turkey. "I don’t think any real changes will take place
before October," Bozoian said. "Most likely, the Armenian president
will not go to Turkey to watch the football match. Turkey will take
some steps, again, seeking political dividends."
Ruben Safrastian, a Turkish studies expert and director of the
National Academy of Sciences’s Institute of Oriental Studies, says that
Turkey will continue to strive to improve relations with Armenia, but
cautions that predicting Yerevan’s response is not yet possible. "The
two countries are fighting diplomatically," Safrastan said. "I don’t
think there will be fundamental changes in the near future."
Editor’s Note: Marianna Grigoryan is a freelance reporter based
in Yerevan.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
