IMF SEES SLOWDOWN IN RATE OF ECONOMIC DECLINE IN ARMENIA
Interfax, Russia
Sept 10 2009
Specialists from the International Monetary Fund believe the rate of
decline in the Armenian economy is slowing, Nienke Oomes, the IMF’s
permanent representative in Yerevan, told journalists on Wednesday.
Oomes said Armenia has made it through the most difficult part of the
crisis and the decline in GDP should be lower at the end of the year
than the 18.5% decline seen over the first seven months of 2009.
The IMF is still updating its forecasts for Armenian GDP in 2009,
but the fund expects the economy to contract 10%-15% and average
annual inflation of 3%, she said.
Positive trends are being seen in the activities of Armenian mining and
metals companies due to a considerable increase in global copper and
molybdenum prices. In addition, the national currency’s devaluation
against the U.S. dollar is also having a positive effect on the
country’s export capabilities, she said.
Oomes also said the IMF believes the Armenian budget deficit will be
lower than the earlier approved forecast of 7.5% of GDP.
In late June, the IMF lowered its forecast for the decline in
Armenian GDP in 2009 to 9.5% from 5%. Oomes said the IMF does not
expect the Armenian economy to contract by more than 10% this year,
although a great deal will depend on global trends, specifically oil
and metals prices.
The World Bank has predicted Armenian GDP will contract 12%-14%
this year and inflation will total 6%. The World Bank had previously
forecast a GDP decline of 9%-11% and inflation of less than 3%.
The Armenian Finance Ministry forecasts the economy will decline
10%-15% in 2009 and inflation will be 4%. In June, the Central Bank
released a forecast predicting a 7%-8% decline in GDP.