HETQ ONLINE
September 28, 2009
The Coming Russian Defeat in the Caucasus
By David Boyajian
Russia will be well along the road to total defeat by the US and NATO
in the Caucasus and beyond if the recently proposed Armenian – Turkish
`Protocols’ are ratified.
Within two months after ratification, Turkey would be required to open
its border with Armenia. Subsequently, or perhaps simultaneously, the
Azerbaijani – Armenian border will open if, as appears increasingly
possible, an Artsakh (Karabagh) peace agreement is signed.
Regardless of whether the Azeri border opens, a fully open Turkish –
Armenian border would inevitably result in US and NATO penetration and
subjugation of Armenia.
Let us look at US and Russian policy in the Caucasus, both past and
present.
The West’s Goal: Domination
For two decades, the West, as well as Israel, has dreamt of dominating
the Caucasus, which is the gateway from Europe and Turkey into the oil
and gas-rich Caspian Sea region. To do so required ripping the
Caucasus’ three ex-Soviet countries – Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia
– from the Russian bear’s claws.
The US and NATO have largely succeeded in doing so. The West has
already built two major gas and oil pipelines – BTE and BTC – from
Azerbaijan’s Caspian coast, through Georgia and Turkey. The US
insists that all pipelines bypass Russia and Iran.
Though Georgia and Azerbaijan are under continual Russian pressure,
both are NATO candidates and have aligned themselves with the US.
That left Armenia, perhaps Russia’s only real ally in the world, as
the sole obstacle to total American domination of the western land
route into the Caspian.
By coaxing Turkey to open its border, Washington is now trying to lure
Armenia away from Russia and into the infinitely richer and more
modern, attractive, and democratic Western/NATO bloc.
Wealthier, stronger, and about thirty times larger and more populous
than its small, besieged eastern neighbor, Turkey has been picked for
the lead role in the West’s seduction of Armenia.
Armenia’s Importance to US Strategy
Until last year’s Georgian – Russian war, the US had been silently
pleased with Turkey’s blockade of Armenia. Washington hoped the
blockade, imposed mostly due to the Artsakh war, would create economic
pressure on Armenians to resolve that conflict.
Note that only an Artsakh peace agreement could fully pry open the
Azeri-Armenian-Turkish corridor that NATO and Washington craved. [See
the author’s `Why Artsakh Matters to the West and Russia’ on
Armeniapedia.org.]
But the war in Georgia cast doubt on that country’s ability to
continue hosting western-bound pipelines. For the US, the only
alternative to unstable Georgia is Armenia. This explains why
Washington has been dramatically stepping up pressure – and the
`Protocols’ are part of that pressure – on Turkey, Armenia, and
Azerbaijan to resolve their differences and thereby create a new
American path into the Caspian.
How does Russia feel about Armenia’s border issues?
Russia’s Fatal Mistakes
The Kremlin had long been silently pleased with the closed Turkish –
Armenian border and the Artsakh stalemate. After all, these prevented
the US from penetrating Armenia and dominating all three Caucasus
countries.
Now, however, confidential and other sources indicate that Moscow
favors both the Turkish-Armenian `Protocols’ and an Artsakh peace
agreement.
Russia reportedly hopes that trade across the Turkish – Armenian
border would enable it to profit from its ownership of Armenian
industry, particularly electricity production and transportation.
However, given Armenia’s small economy and size, the extra revenue for
Russia would not be considerable.
The Kremlin is also reportedly worried that a new Russian – Georgian
war would hurt Armenia’s economy since most Armenian imports/exports
must now go through Georgia.
Thus, Russia allegedly hopes that an open Turkish – Armenian border
would give its Armenia ally an alternative import/export route in case
of a war. Yet, given its alliance with Georgia, Turkey might well
close its border with Armenia in such an eventuality. Conversely,
were the Turkish-Armenia-Azeri corridor to remain open, this would
partly defeat the very purpose of a Russian attack on Georgia.
Moscow and Ankara have developed significant economic and political
relations in recent years. And Russia supplies most of Turkey’s
natural gas. Thus, the Kremlin apparently believes that it can
dictate to Ankara. The Kremlin is wrong. Regardless of how friendly
it becomes with Russia, Turkey will stay within NATO, its only
protection against its historic, nuclear-armed Russian enemy.
Moreover, Turkey – and Georgia, which also depends on Russian gas –
will eventually develop alternative energy sources and no longer be
vulnerable to Russia pressure. In the meantime, Russia will lose
Armenia to the West.
Russia is also trying to buy up future production from Azerbaijan’s
oil and gas fields in hopes that, in so doing, the West will lose
interest in Azerbaijan. In return, Russia is apparently pressuring
Armenia to, in effect, hand Artsakh to Azerbaijan.
This is a grave error. Historically, Azeris have betrayed Russia, as
happened in WW I when they sided with Turkey, and will do so again. In
the meantime, Armenian anger at Russia for selling out Artsakh,
combined with the lure of Western wealth, will permanently drive
Armenia away from Russia. Only a true Russian alliance with, not
economic and military bullying of, Armenia, will keep Armenia as a
friend. Armenia’s fear of Turkey is not enough.
Russian Policy Blunders
Russia has a long history of disastrous policies. In the space of 75
years, Russia lost two empires – Czarist and Soviet – and the Cold
War. Russia allowed false prophets – Bolsheviks – to impose the
inefficient and inhumane political and economic system of Communism
upon it. Russians let a deranged Georgian, Josef Stalin, maim and
murder countless millions of them. Even today, most of Russia’s
wealth comes not from human productivity but courtesy of Mother
Nature: oil and gas.
Recent Kremlin policy has been deeply influenced by Aleksandr Dugin,
an extreme nationalist ideologue. His political philosophy,
Neo-Eurasianism, advocates a Russian led alliance of Asian and Slavic
countries. Like most Russian analysts, Dugin saw Armenia as a barrier
against Turkey, Russia’s historic enemy. Dugin then changed his mind.
He now thinks that Turkey is a Russian ally. This is a clear sign of
Neo-Eurasianism’s immaturity.
The Kremlin – this time with Medvedev and Putin at the helm – is once
again listening to false prophets. Turkey’s arm can indeed be
twisted, but not broken, by Russia. Moreover, Turkey is tougher than
Russia. During the Cold War, genocidal Turkey would have annihilated
Russia had it, rather than the Soviets, possessed nuclear weapons.
While Turks make Russians think they’ve become friends, Russians
foolishly throw their only ally, Armenia, to the Turkish wolf. Russia
will lose Armenia but will not win Turkey over. Pan-Turkism will
continue, pushed by the West for its own purposes.
Moreover, as I noted two years ago, once NATO enters the Caucasus, it
`could then jump across the Caspian Sea and march straight into Muslim
Central Asia, posing a possibly mortal threat to Russia.’
Reject the Dangerous Protocols
Armenians must openly reject the `Protocols.’ Besides abrogating
long-standing Armenian rights vis-à-vis its genocidal neighbor, they
are a formula for Turkish hegemony over Armenia.
If the Turkish – Armenian border is to open, it must be in a way that
does not permit Turks to infiltrate, buy up, Ottomanize, and
eventually control Armenia.
Armenians must now publicly and bluntly emphasize to their Russian
ally that the `Protocols’ will result in Russia’s being surrounded by
NATO and ultimately, along with Armenia, destroyed.
The author is an Armenian American freelance writer. Many of his
articles are archived at Armeniapedia.org.