BEFORE THE BALL
Igor Muradyan
hos15414.html
16:17:54 – 05/10/2009
Despite all the scandal around the Armenian-Turkish protocols, the
impression is created that many people in Armenia are waiting for a
solution, like in a ball, but in this case it is not a festival during
plague but just celebrations and festival caused by the fact that the
country appeared in the centre of the world attention. About this,
both pro-government and pro-oppositional idiots tell me with pleasure
which imagine themselves the creators of the history. The mass media
writes that the 55 percent is against the arrangements, and the resting
45 percent is rather low for a kind-hearted nation which endlessly
changes it mind. The example of Georgia is worth remembering which
has been not only been transformed into a coin but also put on the
sacrificial altar as a lamb and it is constantly blooding. Who is not
lazy complains. And those who have been propagating for already 20
years to refuse everything once irrefutable in the national ideology
now became super patriots and they are offended that someone named
Serge does what they aspired to do. Those who have cooperated with the
marginal political regime being a part of the shameful coalition now
remembered what is written in their order. Protest the outspoken agents
of foreign influence, representing themselves innocent and helpless
in the garbage pit, which is called Armenian politics. This debate
in Parliament, which has become a byword for outside observers, has
demonstrated everything the Armenian political class is capable. All
this looks like a thieves’ dismantling.
So, about the focus of world attention.
As it became clear, the Americans kicked Russia out of the arena
of these negotiations and are now able to manipulate them, as they
like. Russia will long continue to keep quiet and pretend that relates
to this comedy positively. Similarly, Europeans are also pretending,
for whom (in particular, for France and Germany) the solution to
the Turkish-Armenian relations brings about a very, very unpleasant
situation. Without exception, all the "interested" parties understand
that a new geopolitical situation has to be expected in the region,
which will undoubtedly lead to tension and hostility increase. And each
side is now trying to figure out to what extent these new circumstances
will affect their interests.
In this situation, when Barack Obama puts forward various proposals
to Turkey, including the deployment of missile defense and some
understanding of the role of Turkey as well as its repression by the
EU, the impression that the U.S. is helping this collapsing country
making it a geo-strategic stake may be created. Nothing like this
actually happens. Any U.S. initiative to promote relations with Turkey
is aimed at strengthening control over it and limiting its foreign
policy capabilities.
Regarding the Turkish-Armenian talks, new circumstances connected
with the administration policy of Barack Obama came out. Various
Armenian circles in the U.S. quite different from the administration,
get conflicting signals on the process of Armenian-Turkish talks. In
this regard, it should be noted that the U.S. Foreign Office – the
State Department and, to some extent, the National Security Council, in
greater or lesser extent, are fragmented into three groups, benchmarks,
respectively, to Barack Obama, John Biden and H. Clinton. Barack
Obama appointed his people in the administration and, above all,
for the posts of advisers on different regions and functional areas
of foreign policy, monopolizing the "Islamic trend", including Turkey.
Apparently, the president’s people took under control also the European
and the Chinese directions. The Eastern Europe, including Russia and
Caucasus are in the field of influence of the Vice-president and
Secretary of State. And it is the president’s people who transmit
signals to the Armenian organizations in the United States, as
well as certain political groups in Armenia, to strengthen protest
actions. Such a swift and smooth resolution of Armenian-Turkish
relations does not satisfy the U.S., which began to doubt that
this perspective will facilitate the implementation of their main
goals with regard to Turkey, that is, to deter its ambitions. Two
smartest men largely assimilated, but not finally parted with their
Armenian ethnic image – one in Moscow, another in Houston, somehow
managed to explain to the abstruse political designers in Washington
that another incredible stupidity is being committed, and that it
would be much wiser to quickly recognize the genocide. In short,
Americans stopped halfway through, realizing that they confronted
an incomprehensible situation. In the end, they cannot completely
ignore the strategic interests of their major external partners –
the leading European states. After some mutual understanding between
Europeans and U.S. about a coherent policy with regard to containment
of Turkey, built on the enthusiasm of the Europeans, in connection with
the coming to power of Barack Obama, Americans have very deeply held
forth in its separate game which is not expedient for the Europeans.
What is Armenia seeking in this more than uncertain situation
where neither the U.S. nor the EU, and in general no one bears any
responsibility for the future. Armenian political class on a whim,
felt the lack of capacity and information resources for analyzing
and understanding the situation, and if there is something that can
hold it back from committing stupidity and meanness, maybe only the
fear from the unknown.
In this situation of insanity, only one thing remains – to achieve
the border opening with Turkey, but not in accelerated mode, but as
they say in Odessa – "gradually". In the end, even the Americans were
surprised at the total hegemony of enthusiasm of the Armenians on the
early opening of the border, with any method at any price. Then begin
a series of concessions, until the disaster. Yes, open the border
let Armenians be content with cheap gruel. I am for the opening of
this border if it makes sense.