E.U. COMMENTS ON ANKARA’S POLICY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
Emrullah Uslu
Jamestown Foundation
Oct 22 2009
European Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn at the October 14 2009
release of the EC report on the progress of countries aspiring to
EU membership.
The European Commission has released its "2009 Progress Report" and
"Enlargement Strategy Paper" in which it assessed developments in
Turkey. The strategy paper stressed Ankara’s role in contributing
to the stability of the Middle East and the South Caucasus. Turkey’s
efforts toward the normalization of its ties with Armenia and its key
position on the Nabucco project, which will ease the E.U.’s energy
dependence on Russia, was also discussed in the strategy paper
(Anadolu Ajansi, October 14).
The Enlargement Strategy Paper stressed that the accession negotiations
with Turkey have reached a more critical stage, requiring a new
impetus for implementing reform. The paper notes that the pace of
Turkish reform is often too slow. Furthermore, "the international
economic crisis adds to the strain. In several cases, bilateral
questions unduly affect the accession process" (E.U. Enlargement
Strategy Paper, October 14). As an obstacle to the E.U. enlargement
strategy, the report reiterated that Turkey continues to face major
challenges relating to the rule of law, in particular the fight
against corruption and organized crime. These issues are important
in a functioning democracy and economy and largely shape the E.U.
accession process (E.U. Enlargement Strategy Paper, October 14).
It also emphasized several issues that Turkey has taken major steps
toward fulfilling in terms of its E.U. membership requirements. Turkey
is making progress in resolving border disputes, in conformity
with the principle of the peaceful settlement of such disputes in
accordance with the United Nations Charter, including, if necessary,
the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice. The report
noted that, "Turkey is committed to cooperation in the region and
is part of the Black Sea Synergy framework. The Commission supports
Turkey’s participation in the Black Sea basin cooperation program
under the European Neighborhood and Partnership Instrument (ENPI)
(E.U. Enlargement Strategy Paper, October 14). Regarding Ankara’s
steps toward establishing diplomatic relations with Armenia, the
report highlighted that, "significant diplomatic efforts to normalize
relations with Armenia were made, resulting in the signature of
protocols for the normalization of relations in October 2009. It is
important that these protocols are swiftly ratified by both countries"
(E.U. Enlargement Strategy Paper, October 14).
In addition to other important points contained in the strategy report,
it appears that the E.U.’s insistence on the swift ratification of the
protocols might prove problematic for the Turkish government. Despite
the fact that Ankara has consistently emphasized that the protocols
will not be ratified until Armenian troops withdraw from Karabakh, the
Turkish public and the Azerbaijani government are anxious about the
prospect of international pressure on Ankara to ratify the protocols
before such a solution is found (EDM, October 14).
The Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, during a recent
parliamentary address, repeated that the Turkish government has not
changed its political commitment to ending the Armenian occupation
of Karabakh. "Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity is as important for
Turkey as its own. Turkey will continue to advocate [Azerbaijan’s
rights] at every diplomatic stage, like it has done over the past 17
years" Davutolgu said (Hurriyet Daily News, October 21).
It seems that it is also in the interests of the E.U. to find a
solution to the Karabakh issue. In its "European Neighborhood and
Partnership Instrument Azerbaijan Country Strategy Paper 2007-2013,"
the European Commission stated that it also aims at stabilizing the
whole South Caucasus region by supporting a peaceful settlement of the
Karabakh conflict. Should a deal be reached and implemented, several
basic assumptions in the strategy might change quite radically and,
consequently, the commission’s approach to assistance should be updated
(European Neighborhood and Partnership Instrument Azerbaijan Country
Strategy Paper 2007-2013).
In its first official report after the Turkish-Armenian protocols
were signed on October 10, the E.U. has expressed its expectation
to see the protocols between Turkey and Armenia quickly ratified
by both countries. Perhaps from the perspective of the E.U. it is
strategically important to encourage greater stability in the energy
basin of the South Caucasus and to maintain the security of its energy
routes. Yet, both the E.U. and Turkey need to predict how Russia as
an influential actor will develop its policy toward Azeri-Armenian
relations. Recently, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev has taken
initiatives that imply Baku might be leaning toward Moscow, but it is
unclear as to whether Aliyev is bluffing both Turkey and the E.U. in
order to ensure their support over Karabakh.
To solve the remaining problems with Azerbaijan, Davutolgu is visiting
Baku, however it remains to be seen how the E.U.’s demand to ratify
the recently signed protocols will influence Turkish-Azeri relations.