ARMENIA-TURKEY RAPPROCHEMENT POSSIBLE SCENARIOS: LEVON TER-PETROSSIAN SPEAKS
Tert
Nov 11 2009
Armenia
At today’s meeting of Armenian National Congress (ANC) activists,
Levon Ter-Petrossian considered possible the following scenario of
subsequent developments:
"The Turkish parliament will postpone ratification process of the
Protocols or will ratify them with some reservations, seeking to
promote quick settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh issue in that way.
"Armenia’s parliament will be acquire an anticipatory position and
will try to refer to the ratification issue of the Protocols only
after they are ratified by Turkey.
"Considering the Nagorno-Karabakh issue to be the main obstacle for
coming out of the deadlock, the international community will try to
accelerate its denouement, which obviously corresponds to Turkey’s
position.
"Serzh Sargsyan, pointing to the sharp reaction from within Armenia
and in the Diaspora over the signing of the Armenia-Turkey Protocols,
will ask mediators for a break in the settlement process of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, explaining that it will be difficult for
him to resist one more such reaction in the short period.
"Approaching Sargsyan’s explanation with understanding, the
international community, however, in order not to lose the opportunity
of benefiting from his weakness, will refuse the request and, on the
contrary, will increase pressure on Armenia over Karabakh issue.
"Most likely, the forces concerned will persuade Armenia also to
ratify the Armenia- Turkey Protocols first, after which it will be
difficult for Turkey to postpone the ratification process.
"By a logical approach, developments in the coming months will
proceed not so much as toward Armenian-Turkish relations as much as
toward the settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh issue, since, after all,
the main condition of Armenian-Turkish reconciliation is not the
Genocide wrinkle but the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue."
Levon Ter-Petrossian stated that the created situation is sensitive and
it requires great responsibility both from leaderships and opposition,
which equally face the highest problems.