Today, Azerbaijan
Nov 21 2009
Armenian elite understands regional alignment of forces will not be in
favor of Armenia: Russian expert
21 November 2009 [13:44] – Today.Az
Day.Az interview with Russian political expert and Head of the
Political Forecasting Service of the Center for Post-Soviet Studies
Alexander Karavayev.
Day.Az: According to media reports, Azerbaijani and Armenian
presidents will meet in Munich on Nov. 22. What are your expectations?
Can we expect progress?
Alexander Karavayev: It is hard to predict. It seems there are good
conditions for a breakthrough that could be beneficial for Armenia. At
present, Azerbaijan extends its hand to Armenia. In general, fairly
positive picture emerges out of the impasse. Support by global powers
and, of course, the Diaspora serves as an incentive to keep Karabakh
and surrounding areas. Actually, this support has always existed and
still exists. But support is rendered to Armenia as a state. It is not
policy of this state in respect of Karabakh.
The Armenian elite understands that the alignment of regional forces
in the foreseeable future will not be in favor of Armenia. But now
there are all chances to gradually get out of this impasse with
dignity, and to get benefits from it. If no progress is reached, a
window of opportunities will remain till the spring of 2010.
Q: What can be an alternative to the Minsk Group?
A: I have no idea. Any scheme in this respect is possible. If the CIS
bodies had retained the authority and power, this organization would
have every reason to become a sponsor of the peace process. But it did
not happen. Peacekeeping forces can hold any name. But only powers
that enjoy credibility and respect all over the world should act as
organizers. However, experience shows even this is not always enough.
Q: The Council of Europe Secretary General says his organization is
ready to offer assistance once Turkey and Armenia need it while
normalizing relations. What assistance can the Council of Europe
provide?
A: Probably, they could offer "to talk about it." No more. For
example, hold a conference, meeting of members of parliament and
public leaders. There can be no exceptional diplomatic involvement of
the Council of Europe.
Day.Az
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