AZERBAIJAN’S PERCEPTIONS OF SELF-DETERMINATION OF NAGORNO KARABAKH ARE STILL QUITE FAR FROM REALITY, RICHARD GIRAGOSIAN SAYS
NOYAN TAPAN
DECEMBER 4, 2009
YEREVAN
YEREVAN, DECEMBER 4, NOYAN TAPAN. The OSCE Ministerial Council in
Athens has not brought about any change in Azerbaijan’s position on
the Nagorno Karabakh problem. Political scientist Richard Giragosian,
Director of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies
(ACNIS), expressed this opinion at the December 3 press conference.
According to him, the statements made by the Azerbaijani side after
the Athens meeting show that their perceptions of self-determination
of Nagorno Karabakh are still quite far from reality.
R. Giragosian believes that a change in the Karabakh conflict
settlement can be expected no earlier than in 5-10 years. The
maximum thing that the sides may achieve is an agreement on the
Madrid Principles. In his words, Karabakh should be more persistent
in its demands that it be included as a side in the negotiations,
otherwise it should not allow the Minsk group which "has suddenly
become so active" to visit Stepanakert.
R. Giragosian considered Azerbaijan’s efforts to purchase new
war-planes and a military satellite to be worrying, he also expressed
concern about Russia’s steps to improve its relations with Azerbaijan.
In his words, these circumstances endanger the regional stability. At
the same time R. Giragosian said that "Azerbaijan is far from being
ready for war by 10-12 years, whereas the Armenian armed forces
already today prepare for tomorrow".
As regards the Armenia-Turkey protocols, R. Giragosian expressed
an opinion that their weakness is that they do not envisage any
responsibility for violation of the agreement. He said that although
December 7 is the deadline for a recommendation about the protocols
to be made by the Foreign Affairs Committee of Turkish parliament,
the parliament will ratify them in February or March 2010 in order
to link this issue with April 24 and not to allow the United States
to recognize the Armenian Genocide. Nevertheless, according to R.
Giragosian, if Turkey misses this opportunity, it will be perceived
by the whole world as "insincere and unreliable".