AZERBAIJAN IS UNABLE TO COPE WITH THE KARABAKH PROBLEM ALONE
Karine Ter-Sahakian
/PanARMENIAN.Net/
09.12.2009 GMT+04:00
The most "unpleasant" point in all this story is that the Karabakh
conflict is being sacrificed to the normalization of Armenian-Turkish
relations.
The Azeri President finally did what was long expected – he shifted
the burden of settling the Karabakh conflict on the OSCE Minsk Group
countries, calling the Prime Minister of Turkey to become their
ally, or rather their sponsor. Generally speaking, nothing else was
expected from the meeting Erdogan-Obama; unfortunately, the USA still
needs Turkey until the final withdrawal of troops in Iraq and the
possible military solution of the Iranian nuclear issue. Here Obama
is clearly not being original and follows the track already beaten
by the Bush family.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The most "unpleasant" point in all this story is
that the Karabakh conflict is being sacrificed to the normalization of
Armenian-Turkish relations. It is unacceptable for two reasons: first,
real normalization of relations is out of the question as too little
time has passed since 1915 and the Armenians have not yet received
at least a formal apology; and second, neither Obama nor Medvedev
and Sarkozy have realized (or are unwilling to realize) that Turkish
intervention into the resolution of the Karabakh conflict can have an
opposite result – Armenia may simply take the measures she is forced
to under the circumstances: recognition of the NKR independence with
all the subsequent consequences.
However, we must not forget that conceivably Erdogan would not like
to interfere, but there is too strong a temptation to put an age-old
enemy in his place and help the "younger brother". So, what happened
in Washington was to be expected. But the visit of Ilham Aliyev
to France and his talks with Sarkozy and Kouchner should put the
Armenians on their guard, especially when we take into consideration
the information leak that Baku has already agreed with Medvedev. Or,
we should say, almost agreed. Obama, of course, is good, but if all
the three countries speak with one voice, Yerevan will find herself in
trouble. And now it’s time for Armenia to say that she is not empowered
to negotiate on the future of Nagorno-Karabakh, she only acts as a
guarantor of the latter’s security, and withdraws from negotiations.
However, Deputy Speaker of the Turkish Parliament declared that
ratification of the Armenian-Turkish Protocols is possible only in case
Armenia makes concessions in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement,
which was confirmed by Prime Minister Erdogan during his visit to the
United States. That is, Turkey already knows when she will or will
not ratify the Protocols. Presumably, the Constitutional Court of
Armenia, if it holds the national interests, must bring in a verdict
stating that the Protocols do not meet the RA Constitution, namely,
its preamble, in which there are clear statements about Western
Armenia and the Armenian Genocide.
Russia’s position is comprehensible too – in the course of the
Armenian-Russian relations, which have lasted for almost 2 centuries,
it is not the first time that Armenia has become a hostage of
Russian-Turkish relations. And the last statement of Dmitry Medvedev
can serve as proof to this.
"Russia welcomes Armenian-Turkish rapprochement process and will keep
supporting it. We have a positive approach to both counties’ efforts
towards overcoming age-long conflicts, by showing mutual restraint
and trying to find a compromise. So, on the whole we welcome this
process of normalization of relations," the Russian President said
Wednesday at European and Asian Media Forum, organized by RIA Novosti.
"Other states should understand that the rapprochement process is
not directed against anybody," emphasized the Russian President.
"With this message created and directed correctly, other states will
feel no strain while following the process," added Medvedev. The
President evidently meant Azerbaijan, but Ilham Aliyev obviously
thinks differently and, as we noted at the beginning, he is eager to
shift his own burden and responsibility on others in order to remain
in power. It is still difficult to predict how all this will end,
but obviously it will result in nothing good for either Armenia
or Azerbaijan, or for the region as a whole. And by the way, Prime
Minister Erdogan had better address the problems of his own country,
in order to remain in power too.