WPS Agency, Russia
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
December 16, 2009 Wednesday
CONSEQUENCES OF A NEW WAR FOR NAGORNO-KARABAKH;
Controversial steps of Yerevan and Baku for resolving of the conflict
by Alexei Matveev
DESPITE THE ATTEMPTS TO RESOLVE THE SITUATION IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH THE
SITUATION IN THE CONFLICT ZONE REMAINS DIFFICULT; Azerbaijan and
Armenia continue a dialog aimed at resolving of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. Meeting of foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan
Eduard Nalbandian and Elmar Mammadyarov took place in Athens where the
17th session of the council of foreign ministers of OSCE member states
was held last week. The meeting was preceded by contacts of presidents
of the two countries Serzh Sargsian and Ilham Aliyev in Munich.
Azerbaijan and Armenia continue a dialog aimed at resolving of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Meeting of foreign ministers of Armenia and
Azerbaijan Eduard Nalbandian and Elmar Mammadyarov took place in
Athens where the 17th session of the council of foreign ministers of
OSCE member states was held last week. The meeting was preceded by
contacts of presidents of the two countries Serzh Sargsian and Ilham
Aliyev in Munich.
Experts point out that the content of these negotiations is "by 80%"
reflected in the statement of the presidents of the co-chair countries
adopted in Aquila in July of 009. President of Azerbaijan also
disclosed some details of negotiations recently. The matter is about
liberation of five districts around Nagorno-Karabakh and withdrawal of
Armenian troops from Kelbadzharsky and a part of Lachinsky districts
five years after that. In exchange for this Azerbaijan will give up
use of force in resolving of the conflict in the future and will agree
with granting of a temporary status to Nagorno-Karabakh, which
actually means legalization of the regime that exists there. After
that the parties will work out the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh on
the basis of voting the forms of which will be coordinated further.
Along with this, despite the active attempts of international
structures to regulate the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh the situation
in the conflict zone remains bad. Thus, according to OSCE, not less
than 25 people died and more than 20 were wounded there in 2008.
The situation is also aggravated by belligerent statements of Baku. At
the end of November, Defense Minister of Azerbaijan Safar Abiyev
announced at a meeting with his Polish colleague Bogdan Klich in Baku
that "co-chairs of the Minsk OSCE group cannot settle the issue for 15
years and there is no other way out except for regaining of
Nagorno-Karabakh by the military way." In response, Sargsian demanded
"to change the rhetoric and to forget about possible war in
Nagorno-Karabakh once and for all" because "Yerevan is ready to
provide assistance to Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and will provide the
harshest response."
Nagorno-Karabakh reacted to the statements of Baku too. At the end of
November, the parliament of Nagorno-Karabakh released a special
statement at the end of November in which it gave itself a right to
"react to the threats adequately." The parliament emphasizes that
periodic threats inspire thinking about the Azerbaijani party as "an
extremely unreliable participant of peaceful negotiations on resolving
of the conflict."
Is a new war for Nagorno-Karabakh possible? Experts do not rule out
such scenario, although they agree unanimously that it will hardly
possible to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in such a way.
Vladimir Kazimirov, senior deputy chair of the association of Russian
diplomats who was the head of the Russian mission for regulation of
the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh between 1992 and 1996, said that, "A
new war will throw development of Armenia and Azerbaijan to decades
back." According to him, not semi-guerilla forces but well armed
armies will clash in a new war. The war in Nagorno-Karabakh killed
almost 30,000 people in 2.5 years. The quantity of losses in a new war
will be much bigger.
Kazimirov says that approximate equality of forces rules out a
blitzkrieg and definite victory. Even superiority of one of the
parties may only shift the frontline but will not yield the final
resolving of the conflict. Losses and external pressure will return
the parties to the table of negotiations. At enormous costs they will
find themselves in a situation much worse than the current one.
Thus, regulation of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is important not
only for Baku and Yerevan but also for the entire international
community. For Russia it would be extremely not beneficial to
participate in possible settlement of a military conflict because the
parties of this conflict have built partnership relations with it and
Armenia has even built ally relations in the framework of collective
security.
Translated from Russian
Source: Voenno-Promyshlenny Kuryer, No. 48, December 09-15, 2009, pp. 1, 3
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
