Today, Azerbaijan
Jan 8 2010
Russian analyst: Year 2010 has real chance to see resolution of
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
08 January 2010 [13:46] – Today.Az
Day.Az interview with editor-in-chief of Russia-based Kommersant
newspaper Azer Mursaliyev.
Can you say the year 2009 marked real progress in resolving the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
I think real progress did take place. However, special feature of the
current settlement process is that a compromise is likely to be
reached 99.99 percent, with the outstanding 0.01 percent of the
conflict not being solved at all.
What does the very 0.01 percent imply?
This is the final resolution of the conflict. Whatever shifts may
occur, the real resolution will come when we witness obvious steps. On
the other hand, we have witnessed harsh statements about the
resumption of the conflict many times. But this has been avoided so
far which is probably a positive development.
Do you mean the conflicting sides have not moved towards real solution
of the conflict?
You know, this is a situation where you can move indefinitely, with no
final decision. It is just a movement.
If you were tasked to draw up rating of significant events that took
place in our region in 2009, how would you arrange it?
I would probably put signing of the Turkey-Armenia protocols and
events in Iran on the first or second places respectively. We have
observed political crisis in Iran for a long time and no one knows
what it will end up with. I think, other events in the region are
consequence of the two aforementioned for the most part.
I would also place certain cooling of the Azerbaijani-Turkish
relations, even the worst level of cooling of the Azerbaijani-Western
relations, and on the contrary, improvement of the Azerbaijani-Russian
relations in the ranking. These events enabled some experts to say
that Azerbaijan has refocused its foreign policy vector. I believe the
kind of warming in already good relations between Azerbaijan and
Russia is a consequence of attempts to establish diplomatic relations
between Turkey and Armenia.
I would also place launch of Turkmenistan-China pipeline in the rating
of events. This has a very serious impact on the region and even will
change geopolitical situation in it.
It’s no secret that powerful countries are interested in Georgia and
Azerbaijan as a communication corridor, which leads to large stocks of
crude. However, in a situation where a pipeline was laid from the
region towards the dynamic Chinese market, the fight for Russia’s
South Stream and West-backed Nabucco assumes entirely different
meaning. This year all witnessed involvement of China, another very
strong and active player, in the Caspian region.
In your opinion, are there prerequisites to open Turkey-Armenia border
and to conclude a specific agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia
this year?
I am very hopeful that it will happen. As to prerequisites, every
year experts express cautious assumptions about conflict resolution in
any given year on both sides of the frontline. But I believe there is
a real chance to solve the problem in 2010. I think there are quite
successful prerequisites for this. However, the whole geopolitical
situation in the region is so complex and fragile that any slightest
hesitation can slow down everything.
Concerning ratification, no matter how many people in the West,
Armenia, and even some people in Turkey itself say that opening the
border is not related to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, it is far from
reality. Technically, maybe it looks that way, but in reality, of
course, everything is interconnected, including the Turkish public
opinion, which can not be ignored by any ruling party or its leaders.
Thus, there should be progress in settlement of the Karabakh conflict
to ensure Turkish society’s consent to the ratification. So, fate of
the protocols’ ratification is not still clear.
In your opinion, if Armenia declines to take certain steps in terms of
settlement of the Karabakh conflict, will Turkey’s parliament never
ratify the protocols?
I do think so. The movements must be at least formal, symbolic, so
that the Turkish government had an argument with which to convince
Turkey’s public of loyalty to the course.
Should we expect any serious negotiations between Moscow and Ankara
regarding the Nagorno Karabakh conflict during Turkish PM Erdogan’s
upcoming Russia trip?
I think problems of the Caucasus are not the main matter of debates in
Russia-Turkish relations. There is no major controversy between Turkey
and Russia in the region. So the main goal of the visit is to discuss
energy projects.
H. Hamidov
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