TURKEY FACED WITH FAIT ACCOMPLI
news.am
Jan 12 2010
Armenia
A fortnight after the New Year celebrations Russia has with even
greater zeal addressed the Armenia-Turkey normalization process. A
distinctive feature of official Moscow’s latest initiative is their
being offhand ones: Turkish Premier Recep Erdogan’s visit to Moscow
and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov’s almost simultaneous visit
to Yerevan are so closely related that one can with confidence say
the Kremlin has intensified its mediation in the Armenian-Turkish
reconciliation.
Surprisingly, both the visits, and the RA Constitutional Court’s
verdict on the constitutionality of the Armenian-Turkish protocols,
have overlapped. So the Armenian side has once again shown its
readiness for reconciliation with Turkey without any preconditions.
The RA Constitutional Court’s verdict has proved a real stalemate
for the Turkish authorities, which now have to intensify the
ratification of the protocols by the Grand National Assembly. The
documents were "held up" at the Foreign Relations Committee of the
Turkish Parliament. Now, however, official Ankara has to think of
reciprocal steps.
Noteworthy is the fact that Azerbaijan is not involved in the
Russian-Armenian-Turkish contacts. The international mediators were
convinced of that state’s destructive role long ago and, although
certain progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process is necessary
for the Armenian-Turkish reconciliation, they are doing their best
to put off Azerbaijan’s involvement in the present contacts.
No doubt, in a few days a high-ranking Turkish official will leave for
Baku to present a regular report to the "small brother" Ilham Aliyev.
Noteworthy are also Russia’s efforts – with Washington’s tacit consent
– to come to terms with Ankara and Yerevan first and then to confront
Azerbaijan with an accomplished fact.
Time will soon show the effectiveness of international mediators’
efforts — whether a breakthrough will come or the process will
continue at a snail’s pace, which has been observed over the last few
months. Considering the United States’ overwhelming desire to ensure
real progress in the Armenian-Turkish process before April 24, the
anniversary of the Armenian Genocide, to "justify" U.S. President
Barack Obama’s going back on his election pledges that day, we
should not expect any "political peace" in the region during the next
few months.