TURKEY’S REFUSAL TO RATIFY PROTOCOLS A BETRAYAL OF INTERNATIONAL COMMITMENTS, SAYS ICG EXPERT
Asbarez
Jan 15th, 2010
YEREVAN (ArmRadio)-Turkey will have betrayed its commitments to
Armenia and the international community if it fails to quickly
ratify fence-mending agreements signed with Armenia last October,
according to an analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG),
the Azeri Trend News Agency reported Friday.
"If Turkey doesn’t pass the protocols in Parliament in the coming
months, but Armenia does, it will look like Turkey betrayed its
commitments," explained Sabine Freizer, ICG’s Europe Program Director.
The two countries’ foreign ministers signed two protocols for
establishing diplomatic relations and opening borders on October 10,
2009. The documents, which require Armenia to agree to a historical
commission on the Genocide and recognize its de-facto border with
Turkey, have been highly unpopular among Armenians in the homeland
and Diaspora.
The Armenian Constitutional Court on January 12 ruled in favor of
the agreements, paving the way for Armenia’s parliament to begin
debates on their ratification. Turkey, however, continues to holdup
ratification of the documents, saying that Armenia must first agree
to a settlement of the Karabakh conflict in Azerbaijan’s favor before
it’s parliament can debate the protocols.
Ankara needs to make progress on its relations "because of the linkage
that Turkey, but not Armenia, is making between the protocols and
Nagorno-Karabakh," Freizer said.
According to Freizer, however, progress on the Karabakh issue is
extremely important for Turkey because of "the promises it has made
to Azerbaijan not to open its border with Armenia until there is
progress on Karabakh."
But Turkey’s continued stonewalling of the agreements will undermine
its entire foreign policy agenda, which ostensibly aims to secure
peace and stability in the South Caucasus, she said, adding that the
situation is made all the more complicated because Turkey has also
"committed to Armenia to open the border in the two protocols signed
last October."
Freizer believes this is why Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan implicitly urged the Russians to do more to broker a Karabakh
settlement during talks on Wednesday with Russian counterpart Vladimir
Putin. Erdogan told the Russian Premier that Russia can become "the
most important actor" in the Karabakh peace process.
Putin in response, publicly told Erdogan during a press conference
that Turkey should not link the normalization of its relations with
Armenia to further progress in international efforts to resolve the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. He did, however, reaffirm Moscow’s support
for Turkey’s rapprochement with Armenia, his country’s main regional.
"Russia’s ability to actually push through an agreement is perhaps
the strongest among all international players, but remains limited,
Freizer said. "It is only when the two countries and the two societies
are ready to accept these basic principles that there would be an
agreement."
Freizer said Turkey needs to understand that Russia does not have all
the keys to the problem. She pointed to a largely hollow agreement
between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia in 2008 as an example of
Russia’s limitations in influencing a peace.
"The Russian Leadership did step in and was successful in getting a
signature from the two presidents, but this did not change anything
on the ground or get the sides closer to a comprehensive agreement,"
she said, adding that a real solution on the basic principles for
peace will only come from within Armenia and Azerbaijan.
"I think it is good if there is more high level involvement from the
OSCE countries including Russia, but again it needs to be accompanied
by a broader debate in Azerbaijan and in Armenia about the basic
principles, because it is only when the two countries and the two
societies are ready to accept these basic principles that there would
be an agreement," Freizer explained.
"So, the principles cannot be forced upon Armenia and Azerbaijan
from Russia or from the US, the societies also need to agree on them
themselves," she added.