QUIET DIPLOMACY COULD INVOLVE EU IN KARABAKH MEDIATION – ANALYST
Aliyah Fridman
news.az
Feb 18 2010
Azerbaijan
Jeff Sahadeo News.Az interviews Jeff Sahadeo, research fellow at
the Institute for European & Russian Studies at Canada’s Carleton
University.
How would you describe Russia’s role in the post-Soviet area? Is
there a touch of jealousy in Russia’s approach to its neighbours’
contacts with the West and integration with Europe?
Russia certainly seeks to guard a privileged position in the
post-Soviet space, and reassert itself after incursions by the West
and China which have led, among other things, to EU membership for
the Baltic states, US bases in Central Asia and Chinese economic
influence. I am not sure if "jealousy" is the best term here, but
rather a realization that its influence is limited elsewhere, and
that to maintain great power status it needs to hold control of its
neighbourhood. Certainly, however, the effect is to be very reactive
to Western influence.
Do you see the South Caucasus republics fully integrated in the
European family in the near future? And what are the prospects for
EU membership for these republics?
Europe is seeking to diversify energy resources, which might be good
news for a republic like Azerbaijan. But otherwise, it has little
interest in the region, and many European countries blame Georgian
President Saakashvili for goading Russia into war. Keeping decent
relations with Russia, given its energy reserves, is paramount. Given
the economic problems in the EU right now, I see no realistic prospects
for membership. Even when the EU returns to health, in several years,
it will have to deal with regional inequalities and south-east Europe
first. It has the tool of the European Neighbourhood Policy, and that
will continue for a long time, I suspect.
Georgia is out of the CIS now. Do you think that Europe and its market
can bring more opportunities for Georgia than did the CIS?
I doubt it. I don’t see many Georgian products being that competitive
on European markets. Perhaps niche ones like wine, mineral water, can
bring in some income, but trade and economic relations (particularly
labour migration) point it towards the former Soviet space. The
economy still remains largely uncompetitive by European standards.
Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine are members of the GUAM
organization aimed at integration with the EU and the West. Does this
organization have a future?
So far multilateral organizations in the former Soviet space have
not been particularly influential. Leaders seem far more to prefer
bilateral accords and are extremely reluctant to cede sovereignty. So
I don’t see a strong influence for this organization.
The Azerbaijani authorities say that the Karabakh conflict is a threat
not only to the Caucasus region but to the whole of Europe. Do you
agree with that? And if so, why is the EU not active in stabilizing
the situation in the region?
Certainly if armed conflict broke out again between Armenia and
Azerbaijan, it could destabilize the region, but likely would
only become a Europe-wide issue if Russia or Turkey decided to get
involved. Internationalization of the conflict is unlikely, but not
impossible. Even then, the chances of it affecting EU member states
directly are remote. I think that the EU, after all these years,
still has to solve the Bosnia issue, and has little desire to get
involved in frozen conflicts outside its territory.
Europe is interested in the energy resources of Azerbaijan. Could
this be a reason for the EU to get involved in a settlement of the
Karabakh conflict to ensure the stable export of oil and gas from
the Caspian region to Europe?
Again, I think the EU lacks the foreign policy capacity to become a
major player in the region. Its member governments would have to push
for such an initiative. Clearly the EU does want oil diversification,
but if Azerbaijan becomes too difficult, they have other places to
look. That being said, I think that if the Azerbaijani and Armenian
governments both sought EU mediation, it might become involved.
Perhaps some quiet, behind-the-scenes diplomacy might be possible.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
