ERDOGAN SCHEDULED FOR CRITICAL VISIT TO US
Hurriyet
March 2 2010
Turkey
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will attend a nuclear security
summit in the United States, hosted by President Barack Obama.
However, because the visit is on April 11, the trip is likely to be
dominated by the lead-up to April 24, the day Armenians commemorate
what they term the World War I-era killings of Ottoman Armenians
as genocide While Turkey’s prime minister ostensibly travels to the
United States for a meeting on nuclear security in April, the visit
is likely to be overshadowed by the run-up to April 24, a day of
critical importance to Armenians.
Although Turkey widely expects a House of Representatives Foreign
Affairs Committee to endorse a resolution calling the 1915 killings of
Armenians as genocide during a Thursday vote, officials and experts
both seem quietly confident the U.S. administration will intervene
to prevent the resolution’s adoption during a full House vote.
"The U.S. will act according to its strategic interests. And at this
stage it needs Turkey in the Middle East as well as South East Asia,"
said Professor Hasan Köni of Ä°stanbul’s BahceÅ~_ehir University.
"It would not be a surprise if the resolution passes the panel’s vote.
But, in the long run, President [Barack] Obama will step in to block
its final adoption. In the past the administration stepped in for
strategic reasons. Today, the U.S. has more at stake than ever. It
needs Turkey on Iraq, on Afghanistan and on Iran," said Mustafa Aydın,
rector of Istanbul’s Kadir Has University.
Government officials also believe the resolution will ultimately not
pass, yet are prepared for an extremely tense period because pressure
will mount on Turkey to proceed with a parliamentary ratification of
normalization protocols with Armenia.
The U.S. will do its utmost to exert pressure on Turkey and increase
tension until the last minute to convince the ruling Justice and
Development Party, or AKP, for a parliamentary vote on the protocols,
according to a Turkish official familiar with the issue.
"One of the reason for the current deadlock is the prime minister’s
pledge to Azerbaijan during a visit last May, [in which he said]
the protocols would not be endorsed until there is a solution to
Nagorno-Karabakh," said Aydın, adding that Erdogan has changed the
official position and has now tied the improvement of Armenian ties
to progress on the issue, rather than a comprehensive solution.
Armenia has occupied Nagorno-Karabakh, a region that legally belongs
to Azerbaijan, along with five adjacent regions since 1993. Turkey
closed its borders with Armenia as a result of the invasion.
Meanwhile, the Armenian Constitutional Court’s qualified support
for the protocols that has been perceived by Turkey as an obstacle
to progress has made it further difficult for the Turkish government
to send the protocols to Parliament.
Both Köni and Aydın said they see no indications of a breakthrough
on ether the Turkish-Armenian track or the Armenian-Azerbaijani track.
Feridun Sinirlioglu, the Foreign Ministry’s undersecretary, returned
empty-handed from a trip to the U.S. in which he had sought legal
clarifications on the Armenian court’s decision.
Despite this, government officials said intense negotiations are
continuing, especially for progress on the Karabakh problem. Turkey
has suggested a preliminary agreement could be signed based on the
withdrawal of Armenian forces from Karabakh in a move that would
help the government convince public opinion about the merit of the
Armenian protocols.
Armenia, however, is asking for concessions from Azerbaijan on the
future status of Karabakh before agreeing to a withdrawal, according
to a Turkish official.
While intense discussions are continuing, few in Ankara believe they
will bear fruit before April 24, the date Armenians commemorate
what they claim was the World War I genocide of Armenians in the
Ottoman Empire.
Turkey has told the U.S. the reconciliation process with Armenia, as
well as Turkish-U.S. cooperation on critical issues like Afghanistan
or Iraq would suffer in the absence of a potential breakthrough
with Armenia.
Such a message is likely to be delivered during Erdogan’s attendance
at a nuclear security summit hosted by Obama.
U.S. strategic needs, along with progress on Turkish reconciliation
with Armenia, should provide sufficient incentive to the U.S. to
block the resolution, said Aydın.
He also said it would be difficult, however, for the AKP to send the
protocols to Parliament, especially when general elections are nearing.
"Behind closed doors, I think Turkey will tell the U.S. that it had
initiated an Armenian initiative, thereby doing what the U.S. was
expecting the government to do. The AKP will tell the U.S.: ‘Public
opinion in Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia is not letting us make
further progress. Trust me. Let me get over the elections and I will
continue the process.’"