TURKEY TO BECOME A VERY SERIOUS RIVAL FOR RUSSIA IN THE CAUCASUS
ArmInfo
2010-03-22 16:04:00
Interview of Aleksey Malashenko, member of the Scientific Council of
Moscow Carnegie Center, with ArmInfo news agency
Mr. Malashenko, many people suppose that having been activated in 2009,
the Karabakh peace process has now reached a deadlock again. Do you
share this opinion?
I agree with those experts, who compare the Karabakh conflict
with the Near-Eastern one. Of course, they differ by their size,
nevertheless, the Karabakh conflict is a long-playing record and I
think the Armenian and Azerbaijani parties understand it very well. It
is another thing that one should look for some ways out that appear and
disappear now and then, which is quite natural as there is a problem
of recognition or non-recognition of Nagornyy Karabakh, and it is
obvious that Azerbaijan will never recognize Karabakh and Armenia
will never return it to Azerbaijan. For this reason, they should
look for some avoiding routes. Here the situation is paradoxical,
as just Armenia and Azerbaijan should take a decision. But they
cannot do it independently without involvement of Russia, France or
America. The problem of giving an opportunity to Karabakh residents
to express their viewpoint is a very sensitive problem, as everybody
understands it should be done, but nobody knows how to do it.
How real is resumption of military actions in Karabakh?
I think the current situation in the Nagornyy Karabakh peace process
may last for an indefinitely long time. There is no military solution
– absolutely nobody may win here. Let’s just suppose that Azerbaijan
will win. The response will be very strong. Now let’s suppose that
Armenia has won. So what? Nobody will win if the war starts, so it
is not serious to think about a military solution.
There are two factors in the post-Soviet area: psychological factor and
factor of stupidity or, in other words, factor of nervous breakdown. In
highly tensed situation the possibility of nervous breakdown and
consequent war is high. But no matter what attitude we have towards
the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents, there are also factors of
wisdom and pragmatism, which say that nobody needs war.
Why is Russia so much interested in normalization of relations between
Yerevan and Ankara?
I think Russia’s position in this matter is not so clear. In the
created situation all the problems should be watched in complex. That
is to say, besides the Armenian-Turkish relations, the Russian-Georgian
and Turkish-Abkhazian ones should also be taken into consideration. At
present quite an intriguing game is taking place between Moscow and
Ankara. Turkey is behaving quite independently in the Caucasus. This
is not an Ottoman policy or imperial thinking.
Turkey understands very well what it wants, especially having not
so simple relations with Europe. By the way, it also depends on
the Armenian-Turkish relations whether Turkey will join EU. Russia
still likes Ankara’s activeness. It supports Ankara. But I think
that Turkey is a very serious rival for Moscow in the Caucasus, and
I think in Russia they do not understand it well. Turks are active
and rich; they have learned how to talk to Russia. For this reason,
at present there are no special problems between these two states,
but they will undoubtedly appear as Turkey is a very serious rival.
Has Russia’s role in the region been revised after the five-day war
in August 2008?
It is some transitive period now. Russia has proved to itself and
everybody that it can fight and give not a damn about the United
States, NATO or Europe. But I would consider this situation as an
exception. The situation with Georgia is the last exception made for
Russia; this will happen no more and nowhere. Both Europeans and
Americans know very well what Russia is capable to do. Nobody was
ready for what happened in Georgia. Anyway, Russia won something in
the war, but it lost much.
Are you optimistic about normalization of relations between Yerevan
and Ankara? How much is it perspective if one takes into account the
current realities?
I am optimistic about this. The Armenian-Turkish process is moving
slowly and achingly, but in the right direction. Certainly, this
is an issue connected with the historical memory of Armenians, and
historical issues are the most provoking ones, especially in the
Caucasus. I understand both parties. It is clear why Turks would like
to forget the fact of the Genocide, but how can Armenia forget that
fact? Anyway, I believe that the Armenian-Turkish process is moving
slowly, but in the right direction.
Interviewed by Aram Araratyan, ArmInfo, 17 March 2010.