On Iran’s Regional Policy
Sevak Sarukhanyan
23 March 2010
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The developments around Iran are directly connected with the processes
going on in the neigbouring countries and among those processes the
developments in Iraq and Afghanistan are important. The article refers
to some main issues of the regional policy of Iran.
In the recent years Iran has managed to use its positions in the
region rather usefully in order to strengthen its interests in the
global plane. After the Islamic revolution Tehran established a number
of subordinate religious and political organizations in the Middle
East which aim is to protect the interests of Iran. The most active
and powerful among them is Lebanese `Hezbollah’, which was created
with the active assistance of the Iranian authorities.
The strengthening of the position of Iran in the organizations which
used to be controlled and financed by Arab countries can be regarded
as a success achieved by the IRI. The Palestine `Hamas’ which was
connected with the Syrian and Saudi authorities in the past, today
receives the main help from Iran which influence on `Hamas’, according
to some Israeli analysts, has become decisive.
Iran’s stirring up in the region is directly connected with two
possible scenarios which can take place in the Middle East.
The nuclear programme of Iran may cause military actions against Iran
by Israel or/and the United States. Strengthening its positions within
the powers struggling against Washington or Tel Aviv Iran tries to
make supposed enemies refuse from the possible collision because it
may also cause the collision with the allies of Iran in the region.
And if the collision takes place, Iran will spread it all over the
region with the help of its allies.
If Iran avoids collision and finishes its nuclear programme it will
become the most influential power in the region and will aspire to
become a superpower. Under such conditions Tehran, which has only one
ally in the Arab countries – Syria, will be struggling for setting its
domination. In this struggle the organizations, which today receive
financial and military assistance from Iran, will be used.
The aforementioned scenarios are mainly of mid-term or long-term
character. And today the most important regional developments for Iran
are those going on in Afghanistan and Iraq. There are civil wars,
foreign military presence and the possible destabilizing threat for
Iran in those countries. In this aspect the relations with Iraq and
Afghanistan are of paramount importance for Tehran.
New `war’ between Iran and Iraq
After the elections of the US president it became clear that the US
troops would leave Iraq. Maybe, from that very moment, the issue of
Iraq aroused before Iran. How will Iran cooperate with the Iraqi
authorities after their becoming more or less independent? The point
is that on the one hand in recent years Iran has promoted
destabilization of the situation in Iraq as it has been considered as
a direct impact on the American positions, but on the other hand, it
has promoted the preservation of the integrity of Iran. In this case
Tehran actively cooperated with Ankara, because both Turkey and Iran
do not want to have an independent Kurdish state in the immediate
proximity to their borders.
Today Iran has to elaborate new `Iraqi’ policy where the American
factor will not play such a decisive role as it used to play. The
political situation in Baghdad where the local authorities have become
more confident has also changed. During the last month of 2009 Iran’s
steps in regard to Iraq came to prove that Tehran will consecutively
protect its interests and positions in Iraq using for that purpose
even the possibilities of military intervention.
On December 18, 2009, Iranian South Oil Co. company accompanied by the
army units invaded Iraqi territory and seized the 4th section of
El-Fakka oil field and announced it its property. In this regard the
statement of Iraq’s foreign minister is remarkable where he, in fact,
accepted that the relations with Iran are rather tense: `We have many
problems with Iranians and some of them originated back in 2003. We
have problems connected with the borders and water resources. `Iranian
case’ is the most voluminous in our Ministry’. Though the Iranians
left the Iraqi oil field at the beginning of the year but, however,
they characterized their step as an `expression of a good will’. Let
us mention that Tehran had never pretended to the aforementioned
oilfield before.
Iran’s policy in Iraq is also conditioned by the fact that Iraqi
authorities being conscious of the price of the economic freedom after
the departure of the Americans and as a result of the huge volume of
exports of the oil tend to get rid of Iran’s `friendship’. Within the
framework of this policy Iranian companies are being forced out of
Iraq, the manifestation of which is the reconsideration of the $5
billion contracts concluded by the government of Iraq in November 2009
with two Iranian companies in favour to Saudi and Kuwaiti companies.
Besides, Baghdad has already stated that it is going to renounce the
import of the electricity from Iran and substitute it with the Saudi
electricity.
Iraqi policy in regard to Iran will become even tougher in a log-term
perspective. This will bring to the counteraction by Tehran, including
the destabilization of the situation by its ally organizations and
groups. It should be mentioned here that Tehran activated its ties
with Iraqi Kurds. In December 2009 Barham Saleh, the prime-minister of
the Kurdish government of Northern Iraq, visited Tehran on invitation
of the president of Iran and hold talks with president Ahmadinejad,
Minister of Foreign Affairs M. Motaki and former president A.A.
Hashemi-Rafsanjani. The parties agreed to deepen the cooperation, and
Iran pledged to help Kurdish authorities in developing Northern Iraq.
Iran-Afghanistan
The developments in Afghanistan are also significant for Iran. At the
second half of 2009 Washington showed its intension to rely on
Pakistan while settling the Afghani issue. The November statement of
the US Minister of Defence said that Pakistan is the main ally of the
US in the settlement of the Afghani issue and that, despite the news
disseminated, Washington respected the independence of Pakistan and it
did not aim to set control over its nuclear arsenal.
The deepening of the American-Pakistani relations has bothered Iran
because Islamabad’s policy in Afghanistan was always directed on the
weakening of Iranian positions there, and in Pakistan, in recent
years, the policy directed to the pressure and displacement of the
local Shiite population has been carried out. The number of the
terrorist acts against the Shiites irrupted and the number of the
later in the country, according to some data, has reduced for the
recent 10 years from 18% to 12%.
The active cooperation of the current US administration with Pakistan
bothers not only Iran but also American conservatives. In 2010 senator
and candidate on the recent presidential elections John McCain stated
that the US had to make stricter steps in regard to Talibs in
Pakistan, as Islamabad either could not or did not want to do that.
Let us also mention that many American generals favoured cooperation
with Iran in the Afghani developments and spoke about Tehran’s
important role. Among those generals is the commander of the US forces
in the region General D. Petraeus who in 2009 said that in the
solution of Afghani issue the cooperation with Iran was of crucial
importance and probably it would be necessary to put aside the
discrepancies in other issues. The German parliamentarians (the
country which also has its military mission in Afghanistan) are of the
same opinion. It was mentioned in the report prepared by the Christian
Democratic Union’s deputy A. Schokenhoff that the cooperation of
Washington and Tehran was crucial for the solution of Afghani issue.
But the Pashto population of Afghanistan and political powers are
against the participation of Iran in the processes inside the country,
because they think it will strengthen Tajik and Shiite positions. As
well-known journalist and researcher B. Rubin who worked in
Afghanistan for a quite long time mentions that most of the local
population believes that Iran is not impartial in Afghanistan. The
vivid example of that is the fact that today the richest and most
wealthy people in Afghanistan are Shiites `who since 2001 has been
receiving a huge financial assistance from Iran’. In order to
strengthen its positions in Afghanistan Iran offered Kabul to finance
the building of Heraq-Khat railway which would cost $500 million.
Despite the fact that the programme is perspective, the central Afghan
authorities refused to approve the building of the railway.
Recently in Iran the US policy in Afghanistan has been discussed
actively, which, most probably, is conditioned by the fact that the
Iranian-American cooperation format in Afghani issue, which has been
working since 2001, began to fracture.
Summarizing one may say that Iran’s regional policy, which main
directions are Afghani and Iraqi directions, began to transform. Iran
is getting prepared to a possible clash with the US, strengthens its
positions in the region which can be used for turning Iran into the
regional superpower in case if the collision is avoided.