Peace Breaks Out in Georgia
Why Russia is extending an olive branch to Tbilisi and other restive
regions.
By Owen Matthews | Newsweek Web Exclusive
Apr 15, 2010
Moscow and Tbilisi are still officially at war a year and a half after
Russian troops rolled into the breakaway Georgian republics of South Ossetia
and Abkhazia and declared them independent. But quietly, with minimal
fanfare on both sides, peace is breaking out. A crucial border crossing
reopened last month, direct flights have recommenced, and Russians have
begun issuing more visas to Georgian nationals.
The reason for this sudden warming of relations? In large part, the Olympic
spirit of peace-or at least Russia’s fervent desire to make the 2014 Winter
Olympics in Sochi a trouble-free success. With the Olympic banner now passed
from Canada to Russia, the Kremlin wants to do everything possible to ensure
that there won’t be any more flare-ups over Abkhazia, just 25 miles away
from Sochi.
That means soothing differences with Georgia and giving Tbilisi an economic
stake in keeping the peace by allowing cross-border trade, once a mainstay
of the Georgian economy. Opening the border also helps Russia’s main
Caucasian ally, Armenia, whose only road access to Russia is via Georgia and
which found itself also blockaded by default.
Yerevan has been begging Moscow to open the Georgian road, as the prospects
of an opening of the Armenian-Turkish border are receding despite an
agreement reached last year. At present, landlocked Armenia can trade only
with two of its four neighbors, Iran and Georgia, with the borders closed to
Turkey and Azerbaijan since 1992. Turkey has dialed back on its commitment
to open the border in part because of a U.S. congressional Foreign Affairs
Committee resolution recognizing the Armenian genocide, as well as pressure
from Azerbaijan, which wants an Armenian withdrawal from the enclave of
Nagorno-Karabakh.
But of more immediate concern to Moscow is the prospect of terror attacks
from the North Caucasus, which is also in Sochi’s neighborhood. Last week
the International Olympic Committee expressed confidence that Russia would
be able to make the games secure, and on Monday Prime Minister Vladimir
Putin formed a security committee to oversee preparations for Sochi’s
Olympics. This week the chief of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB)
announced that it had arrested or killed 170 militants in the region this
year, and had identified the masterminds of the recent suicide bombings on
the Moscow metro and in Dagestan.
But to really ensure a peaceful Olympics, President Dmitry Medvedev will
have to do a lot more than let Russian security forces continue business as
usual in the Moscow-controlled North Caucasus, arresting and murdering
suspects at will. Medvedev’s challenge is not only to pacify his empire’s
most restive corner but the whole explosive neighborhood as well. Making a
quiet peace with Georgia is one important step toward that goal.
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© 2010