EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF RUSSIA-BASED NEWSPAPER NAMED TIMEFRAME ARMENIA WILL WITHDRAW FROM AZERBAIJAN’S LANDS
Today
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May 13 2010
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with editor-in-chief of the Russia-based "Konservator"
newspaper Rustam Arifjanov.
At a joint press conference with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in
Ankara, Turkish Primier Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that he studies
possibility of Turkey’s inclusion to the OSCE Minsk Group as a
co-chair. In your opinion, to what degree is this realistic?
I’m not sure that Turkey will co-chair, as this issue is decided not
only by Moscow, but also Paris and Washington. The Group has been
created by the OSCE, and Turkey’s desire even approved by Russia is
not enough. It is clear that Armenia will show impressive resistance.
The Minsk Group probably understands Turkey’s growing role in resolving
conflicts in South Caucasus. In this case, it was Dmitry Medvedev who
made his proposal that Turkey actively participates in solving these
problems. Of course, it is a positive fact for Azerbaijan. In this
case, there will be more impartial approach to solving the conflict.
It has been repeatedly said that there are official Zurich protocols,
verbal, perhaps also written agreements which state that sooner or
later Armenia must withdraw from occupied lands around Nagorno-Karabakh
so that the ties between Turkey and Armenia will normalize. Turkey
will insist on this part of written or verbal statement.
Certainly Dmitry Medvedev was referring to this when he talked about
an opportunity to involve Turkey to solve the conflict. Turkey needs
to take more convincing measures now so that Armenia will finally
pull out troops from the occupied lands.
In your view, how will the Armenian government act in this case?
Government officials, civil servants, MPs will argue that mediation
of the OSCE Minsk Group to resolve the conflict is sufficient. They
will try to convince that Turkey’s involvement is senseless and
unnecessary. Armenians will unofficially try to persuade co-chairs
of France and the U.S. to advert Turkey’s involvement.
As to France, given Nicolas Sarkozy’s cautious attitude towards
Turkey lately, Armenian will achieve its target in this case. But it
will not work with the United States. Frankly, the U.S., Russia and
Turkey are more active players in the theater of political action in
the South Caucasus than France. Therefore, France and Armenia will
be in the minority.
In your opinion, is it possible to normalize Armenia-Turkey relations
without progress in the Karabakh conflict resolution?
Turkey has clearly announced conditions that will open the border
with Armenia. It implies complying with the proposals suggested by
the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, in other words, liberation of all
occupied areas surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. Once these areas are
returned to their rightful owner, Turkey will open the border.
How soon we can witness progress in this issue?
This may include a period of several months to a year and a
half. First, it is necessary to prepare the propaganda machine
of Armenia and the Armenian Diaspora for this. For the Sargsyan
government, it is a very difficult decision, which may result in
serious discontent of the opposition that can be supported by the
diaspora in this case.
This process will take long. Armenia will gradually be explained all
advantages of opening the border with Turkey. Armenia will certainly
advance some conditions even to international organizations. But it
will have to withdraw from the lands sooner or later. International
law supports Azerbaijan.
Given fast rapprochement between Turkey and Russia primarily in
economic terms, some experts say Turkey, Azerbaijan and Russia may
establish a geopolitical alliance. To what extent is such an alliance
realistic?
It is realistic. But in this case Russia, of course, will be very
careful in this matter because of relations with Yerevan. From
an economic viewpoint, Armenia is not so attractive to Moscow,
like Azerbaijan and Turkey. Russia has obtained everything that it
could obtain in Armenia including railways and telecommunications
market. Therefore, Moscow will always strive to ensure that the
Armenian regime has been loyal to Russia. We should not forget about
the military base. So, Russia will participate in the aforementioned
alliance very carefully not to spoil relations with a partner Armenia.