‘NO SENSE’ IN ARMENIAN-AZERBAIJANI SUMMIT IN KAZAN
news.am
June 20 2011
Azerbaijan
News.Az interviews the chairman of the Islamic Committee of Russia,
political scientist Heydar Jemal.
How realistic is it that the Russian, Azerbaijani and Armenian
presidents will decide on a draft framework for a settlement to the
Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh at their upcoming
Kazan meeting?
In my opinion, there is no sense in the Kazan meeting of the presidents
of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. It will not achieve any breakthrough
solutions that could lead to settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani
conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh in the short term.
By and large, this meeting is necessary only to increase the personal
rating of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in the run-up to the
presidential elections in Russia. In addition, this is another
opportunity to demonstrate that Russia is still the arbiter able to
play a decisive role in resolving conflicts in the South Caucasus
region.
If there is no breakthrough on a conflict settlement at the Kazan
meeting, how likely is it that Azerbaijan will renew hostilities in
the region?
You are absolutely right. This kind of chance will increase
substantially. By and large, this would leave no alternatives
to a military solution to the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over
Nagorno-Karabakh. And here it is important to understand how fighting
may develop. If Azerbaijan wages war in its territories occupied by
Armenia, this will not give Russia or anyone else grounds to intervene
as Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity is recognized by the whole world.
The downside of this scenario is that the other country, in this case
Armenia, will fight against Azerbaijan on the latter’s own territory.
Consequently, it would be better for Azerbaijan not to fight with
Armenia in its territory. But there is a risk that Russia can act
against Azerbaijan. Consequently, Azerbaijan needs to wait for the
moment when Russia will be in a situation when it would not care
about Karabakh and would not be able to support Armenia in its war
with Azerbaijan.
Is it possible that such a moment will come?
Of course, it is possible. The current ongoing crisis in the world
will soon deprive Russia of many opportunities, including opportunities
to provide active support to Armenia.
Iran, as well as Russia, is assisting Armenia. May Iranian-Azerbaijani
relations cool as a result?
A lot depends on whether Azerbaijan will be able to warm relations
with Iran. During the rule of the Popular Front and President Abulfaz
Elchibey, Azerbaijan did everything possible to worsen relations with
Iran. In these circumstances, Iran was forced to establish relations
with Armenia. Now there is a complete reformatting of the situation
in the Middle East. US President Barack Obama has a new game that
offers opportunities for allied relations between Azerbaijan and Iran,
and therefore to isolate Armenia.
There are powerful anti-Armenian and pro-Azerbaijani forces in Iran.
Simply, it is necessary to use them wisely. Similarly, there is great
potential to deepen Azerbaijani-Turkish relations. In general, if
Azerbaijan wisely responds to the changing geo-political situation,
it will have every opportunity to isolate not only Armenia, but also
Russia to some extent.