Yerkir/arm
May 06, 2005
Azerbaijan is getting ready for war
By Gayane Movsisian
Today writing about the peace talks on Karabagh conflict settlement
seems similar to fortune telling.
The settlement process that has always been kept secret today has
transferred to the domain of assumption and rumors, sometimes even
outright lies. In the past, information regarding the parties’
positions and the actual content of the negotiations was not
publicized while today even information about the location and time of
the negotiations is presented as a top secret. And it is impossible to
get any logical explanations as to the reasons for canceling this or
that meeting.
Moreover, Yerevan and Baku seem to have engaged in a strange battle
through the media. But even here Baku takes the initiative and is more
aggressive. Yerevan as usual keeps the defense.
However, if it were not for the journalists that demand explanations
and comments on the statements made by Azerbaijan the Armenian side
would most likely abstain from responding to the moves of the Azeri
side. Strange things are happening during the negotiation
process. While the Armenian leadership is trying to convince the
Armenian public of the necessity of finding compromise solutions the
Azeri leadership is making its position even stricter.
By this we do not mean Baku’s rigid position in the process of
conflict settlement but the irreconcilable and hostile atmosphere
established in Azerbaijan towards Armenia and the Armenians.
When Ilham Aliyev came to power in Azerbaijan he banned any visits to
the country by the Armenian NGO and media representatives. While
visiting Yerevan our Azeri counterparts are greatly concerned about
their return to Baku.
The reason for such policies is obvious – it is easier to create an
abstract image of the Armenian enemy and convince the Azeri public of
the necessity to resort to military actions if there are no
interactions with the other side that would ease the relations and
facilitate mutual understanding.
40% of the Azeri public support military solution of the conflict, 30%
are either against military actions or do not think that they will end
in favor of Azerbaijan.
The remaining 30% are hesitant. These figures were presented by the
head of the Baku Peace and Democracy Institute Arif Yunus who recently
visited Yerevan. He thinks military actions are not likely in the near
future because those supporting military actions do not form a
majority of the Azeri society.
The support of at least 60-70% of the population would be necessary to
start military actions. `Now the competition is for those 30% who are
still hesitant,’ Yunus said suggesting that the military actions could
start in three or four years.
`It’s not a matter of achieving technical superiority vis a vis the
Armenian army. We already have that. The thing is that the public
still does not support military actions. But in three or four years a
new generation will grow up who has never seen any Armenians and is
brought up in a much more patriotic way than we were.
This is a very important factor. You in Armenia do not take into
account that very serious changes have occurred in Azeri society in
terms of ethnic and religious identity.
Moreover, a new generation of army officers is emerging who have been
trained by Turkish consultants with a spirit of strong nationalism and
patriotism. They believe it’s their mission to return the lands lost
in the 90’s. However, this does not mean that war is inevitable in 3
or 4 years. It might break out or it might not. It depends on other
factors of regional importance’, Yunus commented.
The Azeri political analyst thinks military actions are not likely to
break out during the parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan in
November. `They might break out but it is not likely. The thing is
that neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan are completely independent. It is
not a decision to be taken solely by Ilham Aliyev or Robert Kocharian
or any other political forces. There are external actors that have a
great influence in the region.
Tensions and shootings might occur at the border. Any such incidents
will be circulated in the media to create an impression that something
terrible is going on at the borders. In reality it will be what is
called a ˜position war’. It goes on constantly. But to speak about
large scale war with use of air force and military machines¦ Well,
I don’t think this will happen,’ Yunus said.
Speaking about the conflict resolution more broadly Yunus noted that
20-25 years will be needed. `The laws of war are working. Even the
famous Centennial War in Europe was not continuous.
It is impossible to fight for more than 7-10 years. People get tired
of war. Now our peoples are tired. Later, due to various subjective
and objective reasons military actions might restart or no war might
break out.
But there might be no peace either. In other words, the situation
might work out like it did in Cyprus where there are no military
actions for more than 30 years but there is no peace
either. Alternatively, the situation might work out like it did in the
Middle East where the sides resort to military actions from time to
time.’
As of now, the situation tends to be similar to that in Cyprus. But
this option might be temporary.