Spiegel Online, Germany
June 23 2005
Why Turkey’s EU Bid Could Hinge on Britain
By Jürgen Gottschlich in Istanbul
The collapse of the European constitution has lent greater weight to
the powerful opponents of Turkey’s eventual membership in the
European Union. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is frustrated by
France and Germany, and increasingly Ankara believes that Tony Blair
is their last hope for joining the club.
When Tony Blair spoke before the European Parliament in Strasbourg on
Thursday morning, he could count on the fact that there would be no
shortage of viewers tuning in from Turkey to listen to each of his
carefully crafted words. After all, Britain’s prime minister has been
one of the most vocal proponents of future European Union membership
for Turkey. He continued with his supportive stance on Thursday, as
he laid out Britain’s goals for the EU presidency, a position it
assumes for six months starting July 1. Near the top of the list of
Blair’s agenda, he said, is to “carry out the Union’s obligations to
those like Turkey and Croatia that wait in hope of a future as part
of Europe.”
The preliminary collapse of the EU constitution, has suddenly
catapulted the British prime minister into the roll of Europe’s
most-powerful man. But for the Turkish government, he is far more.
Even if nobody is admitting it publicly, Blair is essentially
Ankara’s last hope — Obi-Wan Kenobi to Turkey’s pleading Princess
Lea. Even before the constitution disaster, Blair was one of the few
leaders in Europe whom Turks could count on. Now, he appears to be
the last chance the Turks have in a Europe divided by duelling
visions and internecine rivalries.
Earlier this year, eurocrats in Brussels openly worried that Turkey
had begun dragging its feet on reforms after Ankara had been given a
date at the December 2004 EU summit for accession talks to begin. At
that point, it was the British who stepped in to help its friend.
Behind the scenes, London helped the Turkish government search for a
solution to the Cyprus issue that would be acceptable to all. As a
way of saying thanks for the gesture, Turkish Foreign Minister
Abdullah Gül announced that Turkey would wait to amend a 1996 customs
agreement with the EU to expand it to the 10 new EU member states
after Britain took the helm of the EU presidency.
Does Turkey have a future in the EU?
Now, suddenly, the question being asked in Brussels isn’t whether or
not the Turks sign a document that would give de facto recognition of
the Greek-Cypriot government on an island which has been divided
since the Turks invaded the northern third in 1974. Instead, it rests
on whether any kind of EU expansion will ever even come to fruition.
At major Turkish newspapers, commentators quickly figured out that
some European leaders are reinterpreting the failure of the
constitution as a vote against expansion. Columnist Mehmet Ali Birand
poignantly wrote: “If you take a closer look at this argument, then
you have to assume that the decision has already been made for
Bulgaria and Romania. Croatia is a relatively small country that is
ill-equipped to take the blame, and for that reason everything will
now be blamed on Turkey.”
Last week, Germany’s parliament, the Bundestag, passed a resolution
criticizing Turkey for not acknowledging its role in the “Armenian
massacre” a century ago. Parliament stopped short of calling it
“genocide,” but the response from Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
demonstrated the great disappointment of the Turks in the
German-French EU axis. In Beirut, an irate Erdogan called the
decision “ugly” and “wrong.” And right after returning to Ankara, he
struck again, attacking his buddy, German Chancellor Gerhard
Schroeder, head on. “I admire politicians with backbones,” he said.
“When Mr. Schroeder was in Turkey a few weeks ago, he was still
supporting our position.” Not exactly the way you talk about a
politician whose support you may need in the future.
Privileged partner or full-fledged member?
Then again, Schroeder may no longer matter to Erdogan. With the
conservative Angela Merkel expected to succeed Schroeder as
chancellor after snap autumn elections and Nikolas Sarkozy likely in
line to become the next French president, Tony Blair is the last
remaining hope Turkey has for membership. Both Merkel and Sarkozy are
staunch opponents of giving Turkey a place at the table in Brussels.
So far, the official tenor in Turkey has been to remain distant from
the looming fight over the future of Europe. “Turkey has done its
homework on the road to the EU,” Foreign Minister Gül recently
reiterated. “We are continuing with our reforms.” He pointed out that
Turkey’s new criminal law went into effect on June 1, as promised,
adding that the Cyprus Protocol was ready and that it could be signed
as early as July. If the Oct. 3 date for starting accession talks
falls through, he said, it won’t be through any fault of Ankara.
But what kind of accession are the Europeans supposed to negotiate in
October? A growing number of supporters of a more deeply integrated
Europe — from the head of the Social Democratic faction in the
European Parliament, Martin Schulz, to European Commissioner for
Industry Guenther Verheugen to Angela Merkel — are calling for a
“privileged partnership” for Turkey rather than full EU membership.
So far, at least, Blair has not made any similar comments. Instead,
the British have always implied that they’ve been pushing for EU
expansion in order to torpedo the vision of many on the continent for
a United States of Europe.
But for now, at least, the Brits appear to have the next move. And
they are likely to find broad support in Turkey. Mehmet Ali Birand,
an untiring EU propagandist in the Turkish media, recently told his
readers that Blair is on the right track. “The agricultural subsidies
upon which the EU spends 40 percent of its budget, are an
anachronism,” he wrote. Besides, “Old Europe,” with its vision of
transferring ever more sovereignty to Brussels would have kept
raising the bar for membership, making it more and more difficult for
Turkey to join the EU. “Blair,” Birand wrote, “is flexible in that
sense. The conditions Turkey must fulfil will be less difficult.”
Next week, when Britain takes the helm of the EU for six months,
Birand’s thesis will be put to the test.