The Messenger, Georgia
July 1 2005
NATO-Russia: new balance in the South Caucasus
The balance of power in the South Caucasus is shifting. The agreement
reached regarding the withdrawal of the Russian military bases from
the territory of Georgia along with Georgia and Azerbaijan
intensifying their efforts to integrate into NATO suggest that
Russian military influence is on the wane while NATO is gaining
influence.
Speaking in Moscow on June 24, NATO General Secretary Jaap de Hoop
Scheffer responded to questions as to whether Georgia and Ukraine
will become NATO members by saying, “the door of NATO is open for
everybody,” but the integration of Georgia and Ukraine “will not be
fulfilled as quickly as Georgia and Ukraine want because these
countries are not ready for NATO yet.” Scheffer denied rumors that as
soon as the Russian military bases leave Georgia they will be rapidly
replaced by NATO military forces. “We do not have such plans,
intentions or desires. NATO simply does not have enough military
forces to be stationed everywhere,” he said.
Nevertheless, despite repeated statements of Georgian and NATO
officials that NATO bases will not be deployed in Georgia, it is
clear that in parallel with the weakening of Russian military
influence, NATO’s cooperation with the South Caucasus countries is
deepening. It is clear too that this greatly irritates Russia. “The
increased attention that NATO is paying to the South Caucasus and
Central Asia cannot but irritate Russia,” Deputy Speaker of the
Russian Duma Liubov Sliska stated during a meeting with Scheffer.
Sliska added that NATO’s increasing influence in the region could
jeopardize the peaceful resolution of conflicts in the southern
Caucasus. “There is the possibility that the appearance of this new
strong military-political player in these countries could complicate
the elaboration of those formats that were established during the
negotiation processes. This could create a serious risk,” he said as
quoted by Rezonansi.
This should be of little concern as the ongoing conflicts are highly
unlikely ever to be resolved through “the established formats of the
negotiations” which are intended primarily to maintain Russia’s
influence in the region. Indeed, it is widely accepted in Georgia
that the peaceful resolution of the conflicts in Abkhazia and South
Ossetia requires the internationalization of the peace process.
Although NATO has repeatedly stressed that it will not intervene
directly in the conflicts, the increased attention it is paying to
the region is to be welcomed.
This increased attention can be seen in a statement by Robert
Simmons, the special representative of NATO to the South Caucasus and
Asia, who said last week that if Armenia did not want Russian
military bases to remain on its territory, NATO would be happy to
assist. Few analysts expect Yerevan to respond to this offer, not
only because of the long-established alliance between Russia and
Armenia, but also Moscow’s support of Yerevan in Nagorno-Karabakh,
but the statement does raise the possibility of deepening
collaboration with the west.
Furthermore, on June 16, Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs Vardan
Oskanian presented the NATO Council with a program of individual
collaboration between Armenia and NATO. Oskanian named this document
a “turning point” in NATO-Armenian relations, suggesting that Armenia
is following Georgia and Azerbaijan in their efforts to join NATO. It
remains to be seen whether Yerevan will be able to achieve this while
retaining good relations with Russia.
Georgian membership of NATO remains some way off, while membership of
the European Union lies even further. Nevertheless, it is a fact that
Georgian and Ukrainian velvet revolutions have led to a shift in the
balance of power in the region, particularly in leading to an
acceleration in NATO’s eastward expansion.