Pravda Ru
It”s time for George Soros to visit Armenia and arrange one more revolution?
04/12/2004 18:16
For a week the opposition in Armenia have been conducting demonstrations and
requesting President Robert Kacharyan to resign.
According to the opposition, the last Presidential elections in Armenia were
accompanied with many violations of law, and therefore cannot be considered
legitimate. Obviously, Armenian opposition was influenced by Georgian
“revolution of roses” (allegedly organized by George Soros and caused
President Eduard Shevarnadze to resign). The opposition in the two countries
used similar grounds for calling the Head of state to resign: non-legitimacy
of elections (Parliamentary elections in Georgia and presidential elections
in Armenia).
Armenian opposition became proactive after the Constitution Court rejected
the legal suit on recognizing the results of the Presidential elections not
valid. When rejecting the suit, Armenian Constitution Court offered to
conduct a referendum on the vote of confidence to the President, and make
some amendments to Armenian Election Code. Later Chairman of the
Constitution Court Garik Arutyunya said that the Court’s offer to conduct
the referendum had become outdated.
Opposition deputies in the Parliament (bloc “Justice” and party “National
Unity”) failed to add the issue of referendum on the Parliament session
agenda. As the result, these two opposition fraction have been boycotting
the Parliament sessions since February 3.
Armenian President Robert Kocheryan looks calm. “Change of the authority in
Georgia inspired our opposition”, said the President in a TV interview on
April 8. “Their logic is simple: Georgians succeeded in overthrowing their
President, why don’t we try? But authorities in Armenia and in Georgia have
different degrees of strength”. The statement demonstrates that Armenian
President has no doubts about his ability to hold the power in the country.
Armenian President has the reasons to feel confident: the three parties of
the ruling coalition are supporting him.
Robert Kocharyan has been the President since 1998, and demonstrated many
times his ability
to hold power under any conditions. He inherited this toughness from his
experience of the leader of unrecognized Republic of Nagorny Karabakh in the
beginning of 1990s.
He was able to hold power after the sensational murder of Prime Minister
Vazgen Sarkisyan and Parliament Speaker Karen Demirchyan (his son is
currently one of the opposition leaders) in the fall of 1999. The opponents
of Robert Kocharyan said that some “President’s people” are behind this
assassination. Kocharyan win the conflict with the group of Army officers
willing to play active role in the country politics.
Meanwhile, his former Georgian counterpart – President Eduard Shevarnadze –
was even more experienced politician. However, in “Shevarnadze’s case” the
so called “outside factor” – interference of the USA – played a big role.
Can Washington interfere in the events in Armenia?
The USA has big and powerful Armenian community, and this community has much
interest to the events in the motherland. Unlike the two other republics of
the Caucasus region, Armenia is still less influenced by the USA. Armenian
diaspora in the USA can be a convenient tool for Washington to influence
Armenia.
On the other hand, Washington may have no reasons to interfere. For the
period of his being in power, Robert Kocharyan gave no cause to be suspected
in anti-American outlook (neither in anti-Russian). The USA could support
some politician being more pro-Western, to reduce Russia’s influence on
Armenia. However, opposition leaders Artashes Gegamyan and Stepan Demirchyan
are pro-Russian. They are definitely interested in obtaining support from
the West, but only in this momentary situation.
Speaking of the “outside factor”, here are the words Head of Armenian
Sociological Association, Director of National Institute of Law Philosophy,
“In the small countries like Armenia, the change of power is never caused
solely by domestic factors, even if we speak of elections stipulated by
law”. Therefore, it is time to think which countries could be interested in
the opposition uprising in Armenia.
Vasily Bubnov