Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
July 13, 2005, Wednesday
ELECTION GAMES OVER KARABAKH
SOURCE: Vremya Novostei, July 11, 2005, p. 5
by Vladimir Kazimirov
FORTHCOMING ELECTION IN AZERBAIJAN AFFECTS BAKU’S TACTIC IN THE TALKS
OVER NAGORNO-KARABAKH
Vladimir Kazimirov is ambassador, head of the Russian intermediary
mission between 1992 and 1996, presidential envoy for
Nagorno-Karabakh settlement, participant and one of the chairmen of
the OSCE Minsk Group.
The forthcoming parliamentary election in Azerbaijan (it is scheduled
for November 6) is having an effect on official Baku’s tactic in the
talks over Nagorno-Karabakh. The authorities are doing what they can
to look energetic and constructive. Appraisal of the meetings between
presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia are usually optimistic. Baku is
noticeably less critical of international mediators. Chairmen of the
OSCE Minsk Group (Russia, America, France) are expected in the region
with new ideas in the second half of July. Meetings of Azerbaijani
and Armenian foreign ministers and presidents Ilham Aliyev and Robert
Kocharjan are planned. (The presidents will meet at celebrations of
the 1,000th anniversary of the city of Kazan.) The Armenians who do
not have to think in terms of election remain more reserved but
optimistic too.
Despite its belligerent rhetoric and flat refusal to give ground,
Azerbaijan is softening up. Official Baku is even speaking about
measures of trust, something it refused even to contemplate only
recently. These talks are confidential but official Baku arranged a
leak to newspapers all the same. The matter concerns its two
initiatives: joint Azerbaijani-Armenian control over the road between
Agdam and Nakhichevan (via Nagorno-Karabakh, Lachin, and Armenia) and
contacts with Nagorno-Karabakh itself (with the Azerbaijani community
residing there).
Since the initiatives were leaked to the media, it proves them to be
directed at voters and the international community. Both small steps
lead in the correct direction, but they are so infinitesimal in fact,
that taking them seriously is really difficult.
The problem of contacts and communications in the conflict area is
important, but this is not a key to the solution. Official Baku would
dearly like to establish at least partial control over the Lachin
Corridor between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan has been
laying siege to Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia for the last seventeen
years, involving other countries of the region. Contacts with the
Azerbaijani community cannot replace the dialogue with Stepanakert
Heydar, Aliyev put an end to in 1994.
All of that are important issues of course but not nearly as
important as the status of Nagorno-Karabakh and release of the
territories occupied by the Armenians 11-12 years ago. Yerevan views
the former as an unquestionable priority, Baku the latter.
As far as the peoples are concerned, however, securing a truce and
abandonment of hostilities for good is what really counts. The two
peoples are still suffering from the aftermath of the war that ended
11 years ago. A new war will be even fiercer. In the meantime,
certain factors cannot be overlooked. A whole army of propagandists
is inciting phobias and bigotry. The threats and calls to settle the
conflict “no matter what it takes” will become more frequent in
Azerbaijan with the elections approaching. Belligerent calls from
high places carry weight. After all, incidents have already taken
dozens of lives on both sides.
On June 22, Aliyev boasted of the rapid growth of the Azerbaijani
military budget from $135 million in 2003, to $175 million in 2004,
to $300 million in 2005 (annual growth of 70%). Armenia’s military
budget in 2005, amounted to $125 million. Aliyev promised to up
military spending even more. In fact, he even ascribed the latest
increase to transfer of some Russian weapons from the military base
in Georgia to the one in Armenia. All of that does not align with the
words that “the region has to be demilitarized”, said Azerbaijani
Foreign Minister Elmar Mamadjarov, not with Baku’s accusations of
Ashkhabad of the regional arms race. Forget the needs of re-settlers
in tent camps. They do not matter.
Why would not the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe
take a look at how all of that aligns with Baku’s and Yerevan’s
promises to settle the conflict peacefully, the promises made when
they joined the Council of Europe? Prevention is always better than
the cure.