Impediments to regional development in the South Caucasus
By Jason Katz
Jan. 8, 2015
[Katz is the principal of TSG, LLC, a consultancy that advises foreign
governments, NGOs and corporations in the realms of strategic
communications, politics and policy. He is also the former head of
Public Affairs and Public Relations for the American Jewish Committee,
based in Los Angeles.]
Few regions of the world are, in general, as prosperous, stable and
reliably Western-oriented as the South Caucasus. The South Caucasus,
situated on the southern frontier of what was the Soviet Union, has
become, with one exception, one of the most cohesively prosperous
regions in the world and amongst the most influential and affluent in
the former Soviet Union.
Comprised of Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia and peripherally Turkey, the
South Caucasus region is, mostly, energy rich and stands as a much
needed and viable alternative for European natural gas supplies in the
near-term and well into the future. Read that as an alternative to the
chaotic, military and foreign policy driven natural gas from Moscow.
Recently, the foreign ministers of Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Georgia met
in Turkey’s northeastern province of Kars to discuss regional
cooperation. This fourth trilateral summit included meetings between
Azerbaijan’s Elmar Mammadyarov, Georgia’s Tamar Beruchashvili and
Turkey’s Mevlut Cavusoglu.
Conspicuously absent from this meeting and, indeed, from all
discussions on regional development, energy and general regional
prosperity was Armenia. Armenia, another former Soviet Republic, has
oddly chosen to excuse itself from the growing prosperity of the
region.
Why, you ask? Armenia has taken a decidedly different path, a path
that has necessitated all but the complete surrender of Armenia’s
sovereignty. As the other nations of the South Caucasus have embarked
upon and continue to navigate independent foreign and economic
policies leading to prosperity for their people, Armenia has
increasingly become a vassal state of the Russian Federation in direct
contradiction to the best interests of their people.
Armenia’s borders and airspace are patrolled by Moscow. In fact,
Armenia is the last of the former Soviet Republics to host Russian
military bases, even recently signing agreements to keep them there
well into the coming decades – 2044. Recently, Russia’s FSB, a
successor to KGB, issued a press statement about its operation in
Armenia, nominally a foreign state! As the South Caucasus region and
surrounding regions seek closer links with the European Union, Armenia
has opted to join Russian President Vladimir Putin’s personal attempt
to usurp the EU, the Eurasian Customs Union suddenly interrupting its
half-hearted talks with EU. Armenia even joined nations like North
Korea, Syria, Sudan and a couple of other rogues, voting against
Ukraine’s territorial integrity at UN in 2014.
This is all done against the backdrop of an increasingly poor nation
in Armenia and a severely dwindling population as a result of mass
exoduses of Armenians to other nations due to the dire economic
situation there.
The answer to Armenian prosperity is sadly quite simple. Leave behind
the shackles imposed by the Russians, past wars with Azerbaijan and
embrace the future, again in the best interest of the Armenian people.
At the twilight of the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan and Armenia fought a
war over the Azerbaijani lands of Nagorno Karabakh and its surrounding
districts. The Azerbaijanis lost the war as a result of the
significant help rendered by the Red Army and Iran. Following ethnic
cleansing of Azerbaijanis in Nagorno Karabakh and surrounding regions,
Azerbaijan possesses nearly a million refugees, designated as
internally displaced peoples. In their place is an unrecognized area,
even by Armenia, seeking to be the second failed Armenian state.
During the fighting, Turkey closed its border with Armenia in
solidarity with Azerbaijan.
Fast forward more than 20 years and the entire region is fabulously
prosperous while Armenia stubbornly holds on to Azerbaijani lands and
is thus left in the cold. It would seem to make sense to the Armenian
leadership and Armenian diaspora, but to few else on the global stage.
Speaking at a joint press conference following the meeting, Cavusoglu
of Turkey eluded to the real players, the afore mentioned nations,
hold out hope for Armenia’s involvement, as Turkey’s Cavusoglu
pronounced that Turkey supports respect for Azerbaijani and Georgian
territories, adding that he hopes Armenia will also cooperate.
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Mammadyarov added that problems between
Azerbaijan and Armenia have yet to be solved. “International
agreements should be the basis for a solution,” said Mammadyarov.
Armenian leadership must do itself a favor and in doing so save the
sovereignty and viability of their nation.
Return the occupied lands of Azerbaijan with an ironclad agreement
that Azerbaijanis will return to their homes and lands and that ethnic
Armenians will be protected and given the same rights as any other
citizen of Azerbaijan.
Based on this gesture, work with Turkey to reopen their mutual border.
If events of WWI are an impediment to these negotiations, agree to a
tribunal of scholars to explore exactly what happened in WWI and what
to do about it all these years later.
Work to repair ties and relationships with Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Force the Armenian Diaspora to use the considerable money spent on
lobbying related to the issues of events in WWI and Nagorno Karabakh
to invest in Armenia’s economic survival.
Following these steps, engage in talks on regional development and be
a player in existing and future projects.
Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey are open to solving this frozen
conflict, furthering and expanding regional development and
integration and most of all Armenia will be better off and stronger
for it.