Kocharyan made concessions in vain

KOCHARYAN MADE CONCESSIONS IN VAIN

SOURCE: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, August 24, 2005, pp. 1, 5

by Yury Simonyan, Sokhbet Mamedov

GEORGIA DOESN’T CARE ABOUT THE INTERESTS OF NEIGHBORS IN THE SOUTH
CAUCASUS

The Georgian authorities once again deliberately demonstrated that
they care little for the interests of their neighbors in the South
Caucasus. This was made clear at the close of the Eternity 2005 staff
command exercises, organized this week in Tbilisi on the basis of the
National Military Academy of the Georgian Defense Ministry for Russia
and its only military ally in the region Armenia. The exercises were
dedicated to guarding the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline.
Interestingly, this happened right after the two-day meeting of
presidents Mikhail Saakashvili and Robert Kocharyan, which analysts
took primarily as a demonstration of obvious establishment of closer
relations between Yerevan and Tbilisi. However, reality is evidently
a little bit different. Georgia seems to take into account Kocharyan
but until a certain limit.

The military exercises in Tbilisi that will last until the end of the
week include 52 officers of the armed forces of Georgia, Azerbaijan
and Turkey. Turkey finances the exercises. In the course of the
exercises servicemen of the three countries the territories of which
are crossed by the pipeline route are trained to act in emergency
situations in case of appearance of a threat to the BTC. A special
program makes provisions for their training to act efficiently in
case of terrorist acts and subversions. It was planned that military
specialists of the neighboring countries participating in the BTC
project would take part in the exercises in Tbilisi at least as
observers. In the special press release of the Georgian Defense
Ministry it was reported that the relevant invitations would be sent
to the military attaches of all diplomatic missions accredited in
Tbilisi. However, it seemed that organizers of the exercises changed
their mind at the very last moment.

Moscow takes the fact of closing of these exercises for
representatives of Russia as another unfriendly step of the Georgian
authorities. Alexei Bogaturov, deputy general director of the
International Security Institute at the Russian Academy of Sciences,
told us, “Everything is clear at this point.” Bogaturov added,
“Overall, I don’t know a single expert or analyst who has hoped that
Georgian authorities may invite Russia party to such an event.
Actions of Tbilisi fully correspond to the line pursued by Georgian
President Mikhail Saakashvili. Georgian authorities want a halt to
military relations with Russia, have achieved withdrawal of Russian
bases from Georgian territory and its does not make sense for
Saakashvili to invite Russia to any joint actions and even to inform
Moscow about his plans. The German President has an absolutely
different logic. He wants to show that political activeness of not
only Georgia but also all Transcaucasian countries is quite possible
and profitable (both in political and military aspects) even without
participation of Russia. Saakashvili is permanently trying to create
a kind of illusory anti-Russian “resistance front.” Along with this,
he himself does not quite understand to what he needs to resist and
what is the prospect of such front. He simply wants very much to be a
member of at least something and not a simple member but an initiator
of a new coalition.”

Azerbaijan preferred not to notice the action of the Georgian party
because the problem of security of the BTC was much more important.
With regard to possible threats to the $3-billion project, Baku sees
at least two such threats. First, these are possible subversions at
the pipeline on the part of various terrorist organizations. Second,
this is unregulated Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Incidentally,
Steven Mann, advisor on energy resources to the US State Department,
points to this conflict too. In a recent interview with us in Baku,
Mann said directly that peaceful solution of the problem of
Nagorno-Karabakh was the most important condition for provision of
security of the BTC project.

Taking into account these threats diseased President of Azerbaijan
Geidar Aliev issued a special decree on April 20, 2002, on working
out of measures for production of the BTC. At the same time
responsibility for guarding of the BTC was laid on the State Security
Service headed by General Vagif Akhundov.

In any case, later Baku decided that the measures taken were
insufficient for protection of the pipeline. Because shares of the
company that has built the BTC belong primarily to Western
corporations, especially American and British ones, defense
ministries and special services of the West start taking an active
part in provision of security of the pipeline. Frequent visits to
Baku of US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, commander of NATO
forces in Europe General James Jones and top-ranking officers of the
Turkish Armed Forces are intended to lay the foundation for creation
of Caspian Guard in Azerbaijan. These will be special forces to
provide for security in the entire Caspian region. The role of the
outpost of the European command of the US, whose zone of
responsibility includes the Caspian region, is prepared for Caspian
Guard. The US government plans to spend approximately $100 million on
creation and functioning of this structure in the next ten years.
According to available information, headquarters of Caspian Guard
equipped with the most modern radar will be located in Baku.
Azerbaijan also does not object to the plans of Pentagon to deploy
American mobile rapid response groups in the territory of the country
in the framework of this program. Analysts expect that very soon
President of Azerbaijan Ilkham Aliev will make the relevant political
decision. Now Baku prefers not to speak about Russia’s interests in
the region controlled by American soldiers.

Translated by Pavel Pushkin