Armenia turmoil: end in sight?

Agence France Presse
May 2, 2018 Wednesday 6:45 PM GMT


Armenia turmoil: end in sight?

Yerevan, May 2 2018

Armenian opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan on Wednesday called an end
to a huge wave of protests and said all parties would support his bid
to run for prime minister again next week.

Armenia's parliament is to hold an extraordinary session next Tuesday
in a new attempt to elect a prime minister, who holds the country's
top job under a parliamentary system of government.

But analysts said the latest development did not mark an end to
Armenia's most serious political crisis in years.

Events could unfold according to three possible scenarios.

- Pashinyan gets elected PM -

This now appears to be the most plausible scenario.

The hugely popular protest leader Pashinyan was on Tuesday eight votes
short of getting elected prime minister after the ruling Republican
Party -- which has a majority in the 105-seat legislature -- rejected
his bid.

"That was the first round of a showdown between Nikol and the
Republicans in which both sides flexed their muscles," said political
analyst Vigen Hakobyan.

Relying on massive popular support, Pashinyan, 42, piled pressure on
the ruling party through an unprecedented campaign of civil
disobedience, while the Republican Party demonstrated its tight
control of the legislature.

After Republicans indicated on Wednesday they would support
Pashinyan's bid this time around in an apparent effort to retain their
parliamentary majority he called an end to protests.

But many observers are sceptical they are genuinely ready to back the
opposition leader after the Republicans promised not to stand in the
way of Pashinyan's candidacy yet withheld their support during
Tuesday's vote.

Even if Pashinyan is elected prime minister the crisis will not end
because the ruling party will sabotage his initiatives in parliament.

"We are in for difficult times. The crisis is not over," said analyst
Arman Boshyan.

- Ruling party elects own PM -

The ruling party said it would not nominate its own candidate, just
like it said last time before sabotaging Pashinyan's bid.

In principle, the Republicans could easily withdraw support for
Pashinyan and elect their own candidate.

But given the party's increasing unpopularity with everyday Armenians
the move would only deepen the crisis, leading to unpredictable
political and economic consequences.

Analysts say the turmoil is quickly eroding the party's capacity to
govern the country as the elites are increasingly losing both
legitimacy and control over state institutions.

"Society no longer wants to obey these authorities," said analyst
Stepan Safaryan, adding many state employees have joined the protest
movement.

After "electing their own candidate, they could take a reckless step
and introduce an emergency situation," Safaryan added.

Critics accuse the government of corruption and failure to tackle
widespread poverty in the tiny South Caucasus nation of 2.9 million
people.

- Dissolution of parliament -

If lawmakers fail to elect a prime minister for a second time next
week, the legislature will be dissolved and early elections called.

Early parliamentary polls must be held no sooner than 30 days and no
later than 45 days after the chamber is dissolved.

Such a development would be the least desired option for the
authorities as the Republican Party may lose its majority or fail to
make it into parliament at all.

"I think they will do everything to avoid this," said Safaryan.

"They understand that there's no way they will get into parliament
during snap elections," added analyst Manvel Sargsyan.

Some observers said that the Republicans might opt for a wait-and-see
approach hoping that popular protests will fade away in the run-up to
new elections, effectively stripping Pashinyan of his main political
weapon.

If the government resorts to extreme measures and introduces a state
of emergency, early elections will not be held, according to the
constitution.

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