Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan resigned, and remained to serve as prime minister. In the status of the head of the party, he intends to participate in December in early parliamentary elections in order to win them and return to the same post as the elected, legitimate head of the Armenian government.
"If on the eve of the elections, during the elections and immediately after, there is not be a coup in Armenia, and the parliamentary elections are successful for Pashinyan, then the sympathies of the international community in the Karabakh problem will shift towards the Armenians. Armenia will become a country of "democratic mentality", "anti-corruption", "pursuing an anti-Russian foreign policy", "striving for civilizational values", "an island of civilizational values in Eurasia and the South Caucasus". Azerbaijan will remain a country "authoritarian, despotic, corrupt, alien to Western democratic values and the main conductor of Putin"s dangerous Eurasian geopolitical model. In the conditions of narrowing the field of influence of Russia and its readiness to compromise with the West, what is happening can become a legal recognition of the occupation of Karabakh," former Prime Minister of Azerbaijan Panah Huseyn said about the opinion of the analytical group.
It is possible to prevent and compensate the scenario extremely undesirable for Azerbaijan by attempting a democratic revolution starting from the bottom or top, with fundamental democratic reforms, if only by imitating such a process. This is expected, believe the analysts of the Karabakh Committee, assuming that recent rumors indicate a possible decision by the authorities to go to extraordinary parliamentary elections, the formation of a "parliament with the participation of the opposition."
Analyzing the events taking place, analysts should pay attention to the fact that under Pashinyan, and prior to the legitimization of his power through the December elections, a new Armenian policy was launched to disrupt negotiations with Azerbaijan and radicalize the Karabakh demands. New Armenia intends to build a third road from Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia in the occupied Azerbaijani areas bordering Iran. Consequently, the return of these regions to Azerbaijan is not in the plans of Pashinyan.
The former US ambassador to this country, Richard Mills, who completed the diplomatic mission in Armenia, made a sensational statement that Yerevan is not even discussing the return of part of the occupied regions to Azerbaijan in order to achieve peace.
In an interview with the EVN Report, Mills stated that resolving the Karabakh problem without "returning certain occupied territories" is impossible.
"I was surprised when I first came here and found out that the majority of Armenians I met were against the return of the occupied territories as part of the negotiation process. I am surprised by the fact that there is practically no discussion in Armenia regarding acceptable solutions and compromises. For many years, in the views of my government, these territories were seized in order to be used later according to the formula "status in exchange for territories". I was really amazed that this option no longer enjoys support," said Richard Mills.
He said he understood that the April 2016 war exacerbated these perceptions. "But the cruel reality is that settlement is impossible without the return of certain occupied territories," said the US ambassador, who is completing his mandate.
In Yerevan"s Lragir website, close to Pashinyan, the ex-ambassador"s statement was cited with displeasure, leaving the alarming message of the diplomat aside, the editorial board issued a statement to Mills as an American statement that it was impossible to return any territories to Azerbaijan. Part of this publication, dangerous for Baku, was the mention of Trump"s policy, expressed in the "keep it as it is" formula, according to which the West, according to the Pashinyan media, is ready to recognize Armenia"s right to occupy Azerbaijani territories.
Considering the analysis of the "Karabakh" committee in this perspective, it becomes clear that the analysts' warning was overdue. Armenia launched the process of legitimizing territorial seizure, not waiting for Pashinyan"s victory in the elections, and Baku is not going to oppose anything to it. Judging by the new arrests of objectionable politicians (Nemat Panahli, Azad Hasanov) there are no signs of an offensive in the country, even if there is no preparation for a real or imitative democratic revolution.