Whereas there was a time when the solutions to issues seemed simple, the situation is totally different after the revolution in Armenia. The situation in many sectors has gotten so mixed up that it’s safe to call it chaotic.
Time is clearly no longer on the authorities’ side. They no longer have the reputation that they had a month or two months ago or even a year ago. The authorities are losing trust day after day, and no matter how much they try to make it go unnoticed, it’s going to be hard to conceal the disappointment of the public.
Change of power did not help meet the expectations of the citizens who had come out to the streets, closed roads, expressed lack of confidence in the previous defective phenomena and the people who created those phenomena and the citizens who helped Nikol Pashinyan become Prime Minister during the days of the revolution. There are no signs of improvement of the country’s social and economic situation. People are still unemployed and are compelled to emigrate. You’ll be convinced of this, if you take a trip to any place outside of Yerevan, even places near Yerevan.
There might be a change of atmosphere, but it’s not like that the living and working conditions have become better. As in the past, people still have their worries and face them alone. With the hope for improvement of the economic climate, the government is waiting for citizens to create jobs for themselves and their neighbors, become rich and enrich the country, but citizens don’t have that opportunity and are compelled to leave the country in search of jobs abroad. However, the government was promising immigration.
The lack of jobs is a serious problem in Armenia. It will be impossible to change the social conditions in the country so long as this problem remains unsolved. Unemployment might have dropped and the number of jobs might have increased based on statistics, but the picture of employment remains the same since people’s incomes haven’t been raised.
The increase of local salaries can, in the best case scenario, mitigate poverty, but not improve people’s welfare, especially since this concerns very few people.
A year after change of power, the amount of pension remains unchanged, not counting, of course, the several thousands of citizens for whom an exception was made in the form of the minimum pension.
Now it seems that the government is considering the possibility of increasing the minimum pension for everyone starting next year, but this is a 10% increase. How much will it be? It will only be AMD 2,500, and this is how we have to wait for improvement of people’s social conditions, especially when inflation “sweeps it away”.
As a matter of fact, recently, according to official data, there has been quite an increase of inflation, and first and foremost in the market of vital commodities. In May, the inflation of foodstuffs reached 5.3%.
There has been quite a sharp inflation of agricultural products. Based on the latest data, this year, the price of cabbage is 78% higher. The price of one onion head has increased by more than 65%, and the prices of potatoes, cucumbers, tomatoes, carrots and pepper have increased by 38%, 36%, 18%, 33% and 28%, respectively. But this isn’t the whole chain, and it’s not surprising at all that people’s living conditions aren’t improving.
There is no improvement because there are more expenses, but the incomes aren’t increasing, or they’re increasing to the extent that they can barely cover up for the impact of inflation. This is the image of the social conditions in Armenia, and nobody knows how it will change in the near future.
Despite the promises for deflation, recently, there are essentially higher risks of increase of the tariffs for public services, and this first and foremost refers to the natural gas inflation. This year, it seems as though the government managed to avoid inflation, but what about next year? It’s not too hard to guess.
The natural gas inflation is a serious social burden for the economy and citizens. It usually not only spreads throughout the economy, but also has an impact on the costs of other public services. How is the government planning on going against this? Perhaps it will the minimum pension by 10%.
The economic processes in Armenia are also not such that will allow one to think about neutralizing the risks or reducing them to a minimum. Although the government records economic growth, and rather high at that, there is no quality, and it’s unnoticeable. There is a sort of lack of real progress, and this doesn’t come as a surprise at all.
The millions of dollars that the government anticipated to receive through investments and financial support to the velvet revolution remained as a kind wish, just like many other promises that the public was given during the days of change of power. The investment risk in Armenia has grown so much that even international organizations are calling on people to stay far from Armenia’s economy, if they don’t want to suffer financial losses. It’s hard to recall something like this during the reign of the former authorities.
Of course, the political authorities, which are incapable of bringing the country back on track and helping it grow even a year after change of power, are the ones responsible for this. People are tired of the constant clash of intrigues. This isn’t what the people are waiting for. How much longer can the government keep the country turbulent and in tension?
People want to see the creation of jobs, economic development, the increase of incomes and the improvement of living conditions, but they are in a different reality.
The bad thing is that nobody sees how all this will end and how long it will continue. There is much more uncertainty, and there can be new surprises every second.
It’s no surprise that the business community is avoiding doing business, undertaking economic projects, creating new and real jobs, ensuring employment and creating conditions for the increase of people’s incomes and mitigating the social burden.
HAKOB KOCHARYAN
